Rama Cont

  1. Order book dynamics in liquid markets: limit theorems and diffusion approximations.

    Authors: Rama Cont, Adrien de Larrard
    Subjects: Trading and Market Microstructure
    Abstract

    We propose a model for the dynamics of a limit order book in a liquid market
    where buy and sell orders are submitted at high frequency. We derive a
    functional central limit theorem for the joint dynamics of the bid and ask
    queues and show that, when the frequency of order arrivals is large, the
    intraday dynamics of the limit order book may be approximated by a Markovian
    jump-diffusion process in the positive orthant, whose characteristics are
    explicitly described in terms of the statistical properties of the underlying
    order flow.

  2. Short-time asymptotics for marginal distributions of semimartingales.

    Authors: Amel Bentata, Rama Cont
    Subjects: Probability
    Abstract

    We study the short-time asymptotics of conditional expectations of smooth and
    non-smooth functions of a (discontinuous) Ito semimartingale; we compute the
    leading term in the asymptotics in terms of the local characteristics of the
    semimartingale. We derive in particular the asymptotic behavior of call options
    with short maturity in a semimartingale model: whereas the behavior of
    \textit{out-of-the-money} options is found to be linear in time, the short time
    asymptotics of \textit{at-the-money} options is shown to depend on the fine
    structure of the semimartingale.

  3. Resilience to Contagion in Financial Networks.

    Authors: Hamed Amini, Rama Cont, Andreea Minca
    Subjects: Risk Management
    Abstract

    Propagation of balance-sheet or cash-flow insolvency across financial
    institutions may be modeled as a cascade process on a network representing
    their mutual exposures. We derive rigorous asymptotic results for the magnitude
    of contagion in a large financial network and give an analytical expression for
    the asymptotic fraction of defaults, in terms of network characteristics. Our
    results extend previous studies on contagion in random graphs to inhomogeneous
    directed graphs with a given degree sequence and arbitrary distribution of
    weights.

  4. Loss-Based Risk Measures.

    Authors: Rama Cont, Romain Deguest, Xuedong He
    Subjects: Risk Management
    Abstract

    Starting from the requirement that risk measures of financial portfolios
    should be based on their losses, not their gains, we define the notion of
    loss-based risk measure and study the properties of this class of risk
    measures. We characterize loss-based risk measures by a representation theorem
    and give examples of such risk measures.

  5. Price dynamics in a Markovian limit order market.

    Authors: Rama Cont, Adrien de Larrard
    Subjects: Trading and Market Microstructure
    Abstract

    We propose and study a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit
    order book, in which arrivals of market order, limit orders and order
    cancellations are described in terms of a Markovian queueing system. Through
    its analytical tractability, the model allows to obtain analytical expressions
    for various quantities of interest such as the distribution of the duration
    between price changes, the distribution and autocorrelation of price changes,
    and the probability of an upward move in the price, {\it conditional} on the
    state of the order book.

  6. Nonparametric tests for pathwise properties of semimartingales.

    Authors: Rama Cont, Cecilia Mancini
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    We propose two nonparametric tests for investigating the pathwise properties
    of a signal modeled as the sum of a L\'{e}vy process and a Brownian
    semimartingale. Using a nonparametric threshold estimator for the continuous
    component of the quadratic variation, we design a test for the presence of a
    continuous martingale component in the process and a test for establishing
    whether the jumps have finite or infinite variation, based on observations on a
    discrete-time grid.

  7. The Price Impact of Order Book Events.

    Authors: Rama Cont, Arseniy Kukanov, Sasha Stoikov
    Subjects: Trading and Market Microstructure
    Abstract

    We study the price impact of order book events - limit orders, market orders
    and cancelations - using the NYSE TAQ data for 50 U.S. stocks. We show that,
    over short time intervals, price changes are mainly driven by the order flow
    imbalance, defined as the imbalance between supply and demand at the best bid
    and ask prices. Our study reveals a linear relation between order flow
    imbalance and price changes, with a slope inversely proportional to the market
    depth. These results are shown to be robust to seasonality effects, and stable
    across time scales and across stocks.

  8. Forward equations for option prices in semimartingale models.

    Authors: Amel Bentata, Rama Cont
    Subjects: Pricing of Securities
    Abstract

    We derive a forward partial integro-differential equation for prices of call
    options in a model where the dynamics of the underlying asset under the pricing
    measure is described by a -possibly discontinuous- semimartingale. This result
    generalizes Dupire's forward equation to a large class of non-Markovian models
    with jumps.

  9. Mimicking the marginal distributions of a semimartingale.

    Authors: Amel Bentata, Rama Cont
    Subjects: Probability
    Abstract

    We show that the flow of marginal distributions of a discontinuous
    semimartingale X can be matched by a Markov process whose infinitesimal
    generator is expressed in terms of the local characteristics of X. Our results
    extend a "mimicking theorem" of Gyongy (1986) to discontinuous semimartingales.
    We use this result to derive a partial integro-differential equation for the
    one-dimensional distributions of a semimartingale, extending the Kolmogorov
    forward equation to a non-Markovian setting.

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