We propose a model for the dynamics of a limit order book in a liquid market
where buy and sell orders are submitted at high frequency. We derive a
functional central limit theorem for the joint dynamics of the bid and ask
queues and show that, when the frequency of order arrivals is large, the
intraday dynamics of the limit order book may be approximated by a Markovian
jump-diffusion process in the positive orthant, whose characteristics are
explicitly described in terms of the statistical properties of the underlying
order flow.
We study the short-time asymptotics of conditional expectations of smooth and
non-smooth functions of a (discontinuous) Ito semimartingale; we compute the
leading term in the asymptotics in terms of the local characteristics of the
semimartingale. We derive in particular the asymptotic behavior of call options
with short maturity in a semimartingale model: whereas the behavior of
\textit{out-of-the-money} options is found to be linear in time, the short time
asymptotics of \textit{at-the-money} options is shown to depend on the fine
structure of the semimartingale.
Propagation of balance-sheet or cash-flow insolvency across financial
institutions may be modeled as a cascade process on a network representing
their mutual exposures. We derive rigorous asymptotic results for the magnitude
of contagion in a large financial network and give an analytical expression for
the asymptotic fraction of defaults, in terms of network characteristics. Our
results extend previous studies on contagion in random graphs to inhomogeneous
directed graphs with a given degree sequence and arbitrary distribution of
weights.
Starting from the requirement that risk measures of financial portfolios
should be based on their losses, not their gains, we define the notion of
loss-based risk measure and study the properties of this class of risk
measures. We characterize loss-based risk measures by a representation theorem
and give examples of such risk measures.
We propose and study a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit
order book, in which arrivals of market order, limit orders and order
cancellations are described in terms of a Markovian queueing system. Through
its analytical tractability, the model allows to obtain analytical expressions
for various quantities of interest such as the distribution of the duration
between price changes, the distribution and autocorrelation of price changes,
and the probability of an upward move in the price, {\it conditional} on the
state of the order book.
We propose two nonparametric tests for investigating the pathwise properties
of a signal modeled as the sum of a L\'{e}vy process and a Brownian
semimartingale. Using a nonparametric threshold estimator for the continuous
component of the quadratic variation, we design a test for the presence of a
continuous martingale component in the process and a test for establishing
whether the jumps have finite or infinite variation, based on observations on a
discrete-time grid.
We study the price impact of order book events - limit orders, market orders
and cancelations - using the NYSE TAQ data for 50 U.S. stocks. We show that,
over short time intervals, price changes are mainly driven by the order flow
imbalance, defined as the imbalance between supply and demand at the best bid
and ask prices. Our study reveals a linear relation between order flow
imbalance and price changes, with a slope inversely proportional to the market
depth. These results are shown to be robust to seasonality effects, and stable
across time scales and across stocks.
We derive a forward partial integro-differential equation for prices of call
options in a model where the dynamics of the underlying asset under the pricing
measure is described by a -possibly discontinuous- semimartingale. This result
generalizes Dupire's forward equation to a large class of non-Markovian models
with jumps.
We show that the flow of marginal distributions of a discontinuous
semimartingale X can be matched by a Markov process whose infinitesimal
generator is expressed in terms of the local characteristics of X. Our results
extend a "mimicking theorem" of Gyongy (1986) to discontinuous semimartingales.
We use this result to derive a partial integro-differential equation for the
one-dimensional distributions of a semimartingale, extending the Kolmogorov
forward equation to a non-Markovian setting.