Exponential random graph models are a class of widely used exponential family
models for social networks. The topological structure of an observed network is
modeled by the relative prevalence of a set of local sub-graph configurations
termed network statistics. One of the key tasks in the application of these
models is which network statistics to include in the model. This can be thought
of as statistical model selection problem.
The model evidence is a vital quantity in the comparison of statistical
models under the Bayesian paradigm. This paper presents a review of commonly
used methods. We outline some guidelines and offer some practical advice. The
reviewed methods are compared for two examples; non-nested Gaussian linear
regression and covariate subset selection in logistic regression.
This paper proposes approaches for the analysis of multiple changepoint
models when dependency in the data is modelled through a hierarchical Gaussian
Markov random field model. Integrated nested Laplace approximations are used to
approximate data quantities, and an approximate filtering recursions approach
is proposed for savings in compuational cost when detecting changepoints. All
of these methods are simulation free. Analysis of real data demonstrates the
usefulness of the approach in general.
This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate
posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the
number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models
whereby the marginal likelihood for the data between consecutive changepoints
is tractable. Inclusion of hyperpriors gives a near automatic algorithm
providing a robust alternative to popular filtering recursions approaches in
cases which may be sensitive to prior information. Three real examples are used
to demonstrate the proposed approach.
We introduce a Bayesian extension of the latent block model for model-based
block clustering of data matrices. Our approach considers a block model where
block parameters may be integrated out. The result is a posterior defined over
the number of clusters in rows and columns and cluster memberships. The number
of row and column clusters need not be known in advance as these are sampled
along with cluster memberhips using Markov chain Monte Carlo.
The method of tempered transitions was proposed by Neal (1996) for tackling
the difficulties arising when using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from
multimodal distributions. In common with methods such as simulated tempering
and Metropolis-coupled MCMC, the key idea is to utilise a series of
successively easier to sample distributions to improve movement around the
state space. Tempered transitions does this by incorporating moves through
these less modal distributions into the MCMC proposals.
Exponential random graph models are extremely difficult models to handle from
a statistical viewpoint, since their normalising constant, which depends on
model parameters, is available only in very trivial cases. We show how
inference can be carried out in a Bayesian framework using a MCMC algorithm,
which circumvents the need to calculate the normalising constants. We use a
population MCMC approach which accelerates convergence and improves mixing of
the Markov chain.
This paper proposes a new probabilistic classification algorithm using a
Markov random field approach. The joint distribution of class labels is
explicitly modelled using the distances between feature vectors. Intuitively, a
class label should depend more on class labels which are closer in the feature
space, than those which are further away. Our approach builds on previous work
by Holmes and Adams (2002, 2003) and Cucala et al. (2008). Our work shares many
of the advantages of these approaches in providing a probabilistic basis for
the statistical inference.