Nial Friel

  1. Bayesian model selection for exponential random graph models.

    Authors: Nial Friel, Alberto Caimo
    Subjects: Computation
    Abstract

    Exponential random graph models are a class of widely used exponential family
    models for social networks. The topological structure of an observed network is
    modeled by the relative prevalence of a set of local sub-graph configurations
    termed network statistics. One of the key tasks in the application of these
    models is which network statistics to include in the model. This can be thought
    of as statistical model selection problem.

  2. Estimating the evidence -- a review.

    Authors: Nial Friel, Jason Wyse
    Subjects: Methodology
    Abstract

    The model evidence is a vital quantity in the comparison of statistical
    models under the Bayesian paradigm. This paper presents a review of commonly
    used methods. We outline some guidelines and offer some practical advice. The
    reviewed methods are compared for two examples; non-nested Gaussian linear
    regression and covariate subset selection in logistic regression.

  3. Approximate simulation free multiple changepoint analysis with Gaussian Markov random field segment models.

    Authors: Nial Friel, Jason Wyse, Håvard Rue
    Subjects: Computation
    Abstract

    This paper proposes approaches for the analysis of multiple changepoint
    models when dependency in the data is modelled through a hierarchical Gaussian
    Markov random field model. Integrated nested Laplace approximations are used to
    approximate data quantities, and an approximate filtering recursions approach
    is proposed for savings in compuational cost when detecting changepoints. All
    of these methods are simulation free. Analysis of real data demonstrates the
    usefulness of the approach in general.

  4. Simulation-based Bayesian analysis for multiple changepoints.

    Authors: Nial Friel, Jason Wyse
    Subjects: Computation
    Abstract

    This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate
    posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the
    number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models
    whereby the marginal likelihood for the data between consecutive changepoints
    is tractable. Inclusion of hyperpriors gives a near automatic algorithm
    providing a robust alternative to popular filtering recursions approaches in
    cases which may be sensitive to prior information. Three real examples are used
    to demonstrate the proposed approach.

  5. Block clustering with collapsed latent block models.

    Authors: Nial Friel, Jason Wyse
    Subjects: Computation
    Abstract

    We introduce a Bayesian extension of the latent block model for model-based
    block clustering of data matrices. Our approach considers a block model where
    block parameters may be integrated out. The result is a posterior defined over
    the number of clusters in rows and columns and cluster memberships. The number
    of row and column clusters need not be known in advance as these are sampled
    along with cluster memberhips using Markov chain Monte Carlo.

  6. Tuning Tempered Transitions.

    Authors: Nial Friel, Gundula Behrens, Merrilee Hurn
    Subjects: Computation
    Abstract

    The method of tempered transitions was proposed by Neal (1996) for tackling
    the difficulties arising when using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from
    multimodal distributions. In common with methods such as simulated tempering
    and Metropolis-coupled MCMC, the key idea is to utilise a series of
    successively easier to sample distributions to improve movement around the
    state space. Tempered transitions does this by incorporating moves through
    these less modal distributions into the MCMC proposals.

  7. Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models.

    Authors: Nial Friel, Alberto Caimo
    Subjects: Applications
    Abstract

    Exponential random graph models are extremely difficult models to handle from
    a statistical viewpoint, since their normalising constant, which depends on
    model parameters, is available only in very trivial cases. We show how
    inference can be carried out in a Bayesian framework using a MCMC algorithm,
    which circumvents the need to calculate the normalising constants. We use a
    population MCMC approach which accelerates convergence and improves mixing of
    the Markov chain.

  8. Classification using distance nearest neighbours.

    Authors: Nial Friel, Anthony N. Pettitt
    Subjects: Computation
    Abstract

    This paper proposes a new probabilistic classification algorithm using a
    Markov random field approach. The joint distribution of class labels is
    explicitly modelled using the distances between feature vectors. Intuitively, a
    class label should depend more on class labels which are closer in the feature
    space, than those which are further away. Our approach builds on previous work
    by Holmes and Adams (2002, 2003) and Cucala et al. (2008). Our work shares many
    of the advantages of these approaches in providing a probabilistic basis for
    the statistical inference.

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