A common situation in filtering where classical Kalman filtering does not
perform particularly well is tracking in the presence of propagating outliers.
This calls for robustness understood in a distributional sense, i.e.; we
enlarge the distribution assumptions made in the ideal model by suitable
neighborhoods. Based on optimality results for distributional-robust Kalman
filtering from Ruckdeschel[01,10], we propose new robust recursive filters and
smoothers designed for this purpose as well as specialized versions for
non-propagating outliers.
According to the Loss Distribution Approach, the operational risk of a bank
is determined as 99.9% quantile of the respective loss distribution, covering
unexpected severe events. The 99.9% quantile can be considered a tail event.
Object orientation provides a flexible framework for the implementation of
the convolution of arbitrary distributions of real-valued random variables.
We discuss an algorithm which is based on the Discrete Fourier Transformation
and its fast computability via the Fast Fourier Transformation. It directly
applies to lattice-supported distributions. In the case of continuous
distributions an additional discretization to a linear lattice is necessary and
the resulting lattice-supported distributions are suitably smoothed after
convolution.
We consider estimation of a one-dimensional location parameter by means of
M-estimators S_n with monotone influence curve psi. For growing sample size n,
on suitably thinned out convex contamination ball BQ_n of shrinking radius
r/sqrt(n) about the ideal distribution, we obtain an expansion of the
asymptotic maximal mean squared error MSE of form r^2 sup psi^2 + E_{id} psi^2
+ r/sqrt(n) A_1 + 1/n A_2 + o(1/n), where A_1, A_2 are constants depending on
psi and r. Hence S_n not only is uniformly (square) integrable in n (in the
ideal model) but also on BQ_n, which is not self-evident.
We provide an asymptotic expansion of the maximal mean squared error (MSE) of
the sample median to be attained on shrinking gross error neighborhoods about
an ideal central distribution. More specifically, this expansion comes in
powers of n^{-1/2}, for n the sample size, and uses a shrinking rate of
n^{-1/2} as well. This refines corresponding results of first order asymptotics
to be found in Rieder[94]. In contrast to usual higher order asymptotics, we do
not approximate distribution functions (or densities) in the first place, but
rather expand the risk directly.
In Ruckdeschel[10], we derive an asymptotic expansion of the maximal mean
squared error (MSE) of location M-estimators on suitably thinned out, shrinking
gross error neighborhoods. In this paper, we compile several consequences of
this result:
With the same techniques as used for the MSE, we determine higher order
expressions for the risk based on over-/undershooting probabilities as in
Huber[68] and Rieder[80b], respectively.
We study global and local robustness properties of several estimators for
shape and scale in a generalized Pareto model. The estimators considered in
this paper cover maximum likelihood estimators, skipped maximum likelihood
estimators, Cram\'er-von-Mises Minimum Distance estimators, and, as a special
case of quantile-based estimators, Pickands Estimator. We further consider an
estimator matching the population median and an asymmetric, robust estimator of
scale (kMAD) to the empirical ones (kMedMAD), which may be tuned to an expected
FSBP of 34%.
The breakdown point is one the central notions to quantify the global
robustness of a procedure. Since its introduction in Hampel (1968), several
variants of this definition have been given in the literature.
We define Fisher information of scale of any distribution function F on the
real line by
I_{sca}(F):= sup (integral x phi'(x) F(dx))^2 / (integral phi^2(x) F(dx)),
phi in C_{c1}
In proofs of L_2-differentiability, Lebesgue densities of a central
distribution are often assumed right from the beginning. Generalizing Theorem
4.2 of Huber[81], we show that in the class of smooth parametric group models
these densities are in fact consequences of a finite Fisher information of the
model, provided a suitable representation of the latter is used.
We present optimality results for robust Kalman filtering where robustness is
understood in a distributional sense, i.e.; we enlarge the distribution
assumptions made in the ideal model by suitable neighborhoods. This allows for
outliers which in our context may be system-endogenous or -exogenous, which
induces the somewhat conflicting goals of tracking and attenuation.