Peter Ruckdeschel

  1. Robust Kalman tracking and smoothing with propagating and non-propagating outliers.

    Authors: Peter Ruckdeschel, Bernhard Spangl, Daria Pupashenko
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    A common situation in filtering where classical Kalman filtering does not
    perform particularly well is tracking in the presence of propagating outliers.
    This calls for robustness understood in a distributional sense, i.e.; we
    enlarge the distribution assumptions made in the ideal model by suitable
    neighborhoods. Based on optimality results for distributional-robust Kalman
    filtering from Ruckdeschel[01,10], we propose new robust recursive filters and
    smoothers designed for this purpose as well as specialized versions for
    non-propagating outliers.

  2. Robust Estimation of Operational Risk.

    Authors: Peter Ruckdeschel, Nataliya Horbenko, Taehan Bae
    Subjects: Risk Management
    Abstract

    According to the Loss Distribution Approach, the operational risk of a bank
    is determined as 99.9% quantile of the respective loss distribution, covering
    unexpected severe events. The 99.9% quantile can be considered a tail event.

  3. General Purpose Convolution Algorithm in S4-Classes by means of FFT.

    Authors: Peter Ruckdeschel, Matthias Kohl
    Subjects: Computation
    Abstract

    Object orientation provides a flexible framework for the implementation of
    the convolution of arbitrary distributions of real-valued random variables.

    We discuss an algorithm which is based on the Discrete Fourier Transformation
    and its fast computability via the Fast Fourier Transformation. It directly
    applies to lattice-supported distributions. In the case of continuous
    distributions an additional discretization to a linear lattice is necessary and
    the resulting lattice-supported distributions are suitably smoothed after
    convolution.

  4. Higher Order Expansion for the MSE of M-estimators on shrinking neighborhoods.

    Authors: Peter Ruckdeschel
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    We consider estimation of a one-dimensional location parameter by means of
    M-estimators S_n with monotone influence curve psi. For growing sample size n,
    on suitably thinned out convex contamination ball BQ_n of shrinking radius
    r/sqrt(n) about the ideal distribution, we obtain an expansion of the
    asymptotic maximal mean squared error MSE of form r^2 sup psi^2 + E_{id} psi^2
    + r/sqrt(n) A_1 + 1/n A_2 + o(1/n), where A_1, A_2 are constants depending on
    psi and r. Hence S_n not only is uniformly (square) integrable in n (in the
    ideal model) but also on BQ_n, which is not self-evident.

  5. Higher order asymptotics for the MSE of the sample median on shrinking neighborhoods.

    Authors: Peter Ruckdeschel
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    We provide an asymptotic expansion of the maximal mean squared error (MSE) of
    the sample median to be attained on shrinking gross error neighborhoods about
    an ideal central distribution. More specifically, this expansion comes in
    powers of n^{-1/2}, for n the sample size, and uses a shrinking rate of
    n^{-1/2} as well. This refines corresponding results of first order asymptotics
    to be found in Rieder[94]. In contrast to usual higher order asymptotics, we do
    not approximate distribution functions (or densities) in the first place, but
    rather expand the risk directly.

  6. Consequences of Higher Order Asymptotics for the MSE of M-estimators on Neighborhoods.

    Authors: Peter Ruckdeschel
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    In Ruckdeschel[10], we derive an asymptotic expansion of the maximal mean
    squared error (MSE) of location M-estimators on suitably thinned out, shrinking
    gross error neighborhoods. In this paper, we compile several consequences of
    this result:

    With the same techniques as used for the MSE, we determine higher order
    expressions for the risk based on over-/undershooting probabilities as in
    Huber[68] and Rieder[80b], respectively.

  7. Robust Estimators in Generalized Pareto Models.

    Authors: Peter Ruckdeschel, Nataliya Horbenko
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    We study global and local robustness properties of several estimators for
    shape and scale in a generalized Pareto model. The estimators considered in
    this paper cover maximum likelihood estimators, skipped maximum likelihood
    estimators, Cram\'er-von-Mises Minimum Distance estimators, and, as a special
    case of quantile-based estimators, Pickands Estimator. We further consider an
    estimator matching the population median and an asymmetric, robust estimator of
    scale (kMAD) to the empirical ones (kMedMAD), which may be tuned to an expected
    FSBP of 34%.

  8. Yet another breakdown point notion: EFSBP.

    Authors: Peter Ruckdeschel, Nataliya Horbenko
    Subjects: Methodology
    Abstract

    The breakdown point is one the central notions to quantify the global
    robustness of a procedure. Since its introduction in Hampel (1968), several
    variants of this definition have been given in the literature.

  9. Fisher Information of Scale.

    Authors: Peter Ruckdeschel, Helmut Rieder
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    We define Fisher information of scale of any distribution function F on the
    real line by

    I_{sca}(F):= sup (integral x phi'(x) F(dx))^2 / (integral phi^2(x) F(dx)),
    phi in C_{c1}

  10. Fisher Information in Group-Type Models.

    Authors: Peter Ruckdeschel
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    In proofs of L_2-differentiability, Lebesgue densities of a central
    distribution are often assumed right from the beginning. Generalizing Theorem
    4.2 of Huber[81], we show that in the class of smooth parametric group models
    these densities are in fact consequences of a finite Fisher information of the
    model, provided a suitable representation of the latter is used.

  11. Optimally (Distributional-)Robust Kalman Filtering.

    Authors: Peter Ruckdeschel
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    We present optimality results for robust Kalman filtering where robustness is
    understood in a distributional sense, i.e.; we enlarge the distribution
    assumptions made in the ideal model by suitable neighborhoods. This allows for
    outliers which in our context may be system-endogenous or -exogenous, which
    induces the somewhat conflicting goals of tracking and attenuation.

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