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Richard D. Gill

  1. Elementary Statistics on Trial (the case of Lucia de Berk).

    Tue, 09/07/2010 - 15:01 — SomNambul
    Authors: Piet Groeneboom, Richard D. Gill, Peter de Jong
    Subjects: Applications
    Abstract

    In the conviction of Lucia de Berk an important role was played by a simple
    hypergeometric model, used by the expert consulted by the court, which produced
    very small probabilities of occurrences of certain numbers of incidents. We
    want to draw attention to the fact that, if we take into account the variation
    among nurses in incidents they experience during their shifts, these
    probabilities can become considerably larger. This points to the danger of
    using an oversimplified discrete probability model in these circumstances.

  2. Product-limit estimators of the gap time distribution of a renewal process under different sampling patterns.

    Tue, 03/02/2010 - 16:01 — SomNambul
    Authors: Richard D. Gill, Niels Keiding
    Subjects: Applications
    Abstract

    Nonparametric estimation of the gap time distribution in a simple renewal
    process may be considered a problem in survival analysis under particular
    sampling frames corresponding to how the renewal process is observed. This note
    describes several such situations where simple product limit estimators, though
    inefficient, may still be useful.

  3. History of applications of martingales in survival analysis.

    Tue, 03/02/2010 - 16:01 — SomNambul
    Authors: Richard D. Gill, Odd O. Aalen, Per Kragh Andersen, \Ornulf Borgan, Niels Keiding
    Subjects: Methodology
    Abstract

    The paper traces the development of the use of martingale methods in survival
    analysis from the mid 1970's to the early 1990's.

  4. The Three Doors Problem...-s.

    Tue, 02/23/2010 - 16:01 — SomNambul
    Authors: Richard D. Gill
    Subjects: Applications
    Abstract

    I argue that we must distinguish between:

    (0) the Three-Doors-Problem Problem [sic], which is to make sense of some
    real world question of a real person.

    (1) a large number of solutions to this meta-problem, i.e., many specific
    Three-Doors-Problem problems, which are competing mathematizations of the
    meta-problem (0).

  5. The One and Only True Monty Hall Paradox.

    Thu, 02/04/2010 - 16:01 — SomNambul
    Authors: Richard D. Gill
    Subjects: History and Overview
    Abstract

    Short rigorous solutions to three mathematizations of the famous Monty Hall
    problem are given: asking for an unconditional probability, a conditional
    probabiliity, or for a game theoretic strategy. It is concluded which
    mathematicization ought to be considered as the Only True Solution of the True
    Monty Hall Problem: the little known Game Theoretical version.

Math-arch

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