The possibility of improving on the usual multivariate normal confidence was
first discussed in Stein (1962). Using the ideas of shrinkage, through Bayesian
and empirical Bayesian arguments, domination results, both analytic and
numerical, have been obtained. Here we trace some of the developments in
confidence set estimation.
Discussion of "Estimating Random Effects via Adjustment for Density
Maximization" by C. Morris and R. Tang [arXiv:1108.3234]
In the class of normal regression models with a finite number of regressors,
and for a wide class of prior distributions, a Bayesian model selection
procedure based on the Bayes factor is consistent [Casella and Moreno J. Amer.
Statist. Assoc. 104 (2009) 1261--1271]. However, in models where the number of
parameters increases as the sample size increases, properties of the Bayes
factor are not totally understood. Here we study consistency of the Bayes
factors for nested normal linear models when the number of regressors increases
with the sample size.
We develop a new Gibbs sampler for a linear mixed model with a Dirichlet
process random effect term, which is easily extended to a generalized linear
mixed model with a probit link function. Our Gibbs sampler exploits the
properties of the multinomial and Dirichlet distributions, and is shown to be
an improvement, in terms of operator norm and efficiency, over other commonly
used MCMC algorithms.
This is the solution manual to the odd-numbered exercises in our book
"Introducing Monte Carlo Methods with R", published by Springer Verlag on
December 10, 2009, and made freely available to everyone.
In this note we attempt to trace the history and development of Markov chain
Monte Carlo (MCMC) from its early inception in the late 1940's through its use
today. We see how the earlier stages of the Monte Carlo (MC, not MCMC) research
have led to the algorithms currently in use. More importantly, we see how the
development of this methodology has not only changed our solutions to problems,
but has changed the way we think about problems.