Johan Segers

  1. A Euclidean likelihood estimator for bivariate tail dependence.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Miguel de Carvalho, Boris Oumow, Michał Warchoł
    Subjects: Methodology
    Abstract

    The spectral measure plays a key role in the statistical modeling of
    multivariate extremes. Estimation of the spectral measure is a complex issue,
    given the need to obey a certain moment condition. We propose a Euclidean
    likelihood-based estimator for the spectral measure which is simple and
    explicitly defined, with its expression being free of Lagrange multipliers. Our
    estimator is shown to have the same limit distribution as the maximum empirical
    likelihood estimator of J. H. J. Einmahl and J. Segers, Annals of Statistics
    37(5B), 2953--2989 (2009).

  2. Nonparametric estimation of pair-copula constructions with the empirical pair-copula.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Ingrid Hobaek Haff
    Subjects: Methodology
    Abstract

    A pair-copula construction is a decomposition of a multivariate copula into a
    structured system, called regular vine, of bivariate copulae or pair-copulae.
    The standard practice is to model these pair-copulae parametrically, which
    comes at the cost of a large model risk, with errors propagating throughout the
    vine structure. The empirical pair-copula proposed in the paper provides a
    nonparametric alternative still achieving the parametric convergence rate.

  3. An M-estimator for tail dependence in arbitrary dimensions.

    Authors: Johan Segers, John H. J. Einmahl, Andrea Krajina
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    Consider a random sample in the max-domain of attraction of a multivariate
    extreme value distribution such that the dependence structure of the attractor
    belongs to a parametric model. A new estimator for the unknown parameter is
    defined as the value that minimises the distance between a vector of weighted
    integrals of the tail dependence function and their empirical counterparts. The
    minimisation problem has, with probability tending to one, a unique, global
    solution. The estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal.

  4. Measuring Association between Random Vectors.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Oliver Grothe, Friedrich Schmid, Julius Schnieders
    Subjects: Methodology
    Abstract

    This paper suggests five measures of association between two random vectors X
    = (X_1, ..., X_p) and Y = (Y_1, ..., Y_q). They are copula based and therefore
    invariant with respect to the marginal distributions of the components X_i and
    Y_j. The measures capture positive as well as negative association of X and Y.
    In case p = q = 1 they reduce to Spearman's rho. Various properties of these
    new measures are investigated. Nonparametric estimators, based on ranks, for
    the measures are derived and their small sample behaviour is investigated by
    simulation.

  5. Nonparametric estimation of multivariate extreme-value copulas.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Gordon Gudendorf
    Subjects: Methodology
    Abstract

    Extreme-value copulas arise in the asymptotic theory for componentwise maxima
    of independent random samples. An extreme-value copula is determined by its
    Pickands dependence function, which is a function on the unit simplex subject
    to certain shape constraints that arise from an integral transform of an
    underlying measure called spectral measure. Multivariate extensions are
    provided of certain rank-based nonparametric estimators of the Pickands
    dependence function.

  6. Large-sample tests of extreme-value dependence for multivariate copulas.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Ivan Kojadinovic, Jun Yan
    Subjects: Methodology
    Abstract

    Starting from the characterization of extreme-value copulas based on
    max-stability, large-sample tests of extreme-value dependence for multivariate
    copulas are studied. The two key ingredients of the proposed tests are the
    empirical copula of the data and a multiplier technique for obtaining
    approximate p-values for the derived statistics. The asymptotic validity of the
    multiplier approach is established, and the finite-sample performance of a
    large number of candidate test statistics is studied through extensive Monte
    Carlo experiments for data sets of dimension two to five.

  7. Weak convergence of empirical copula processes under nonrestrictive smoothness assumptions.

    Authors: Johan Segers
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    Weak convergence of the empirical copula process is shown to hold under the
    assumption that the first-order partial derivatives of the copula exist and are
    continuous on certain subsets of the unit hypercube. The assumption is
    nonrestrictive in the sense that it is needed anyway to ensure the candidate
    limiting process to exist and have continuous trajectories. In addition,
    resampling methods based on the multiplier central limit theorem which require
    consistent estimation of the first-order derivatives continue to be valid.

  8. On the covariance of the asymptotic empirical copula process.

    Authors: Christian Genest, Johan Segers
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    Conditions are given under which the empirical copula process associated with
    a random sample from a bivariate continuous distribution has a smaller
    asymptotic covariance function than the standard empirical process based on
    observations from the copula. Illustrations are provided and consequences for
    inference are outlined.

  9. Regularly varying time series in Banach spaces.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Thomas Meinguet
    Subjects: Probability
    Abstract

    When a spatial process is recorded over time and the observation at a given
    time instant is viewed as a point in a function space, the result is a time
    series taking values in a Banach space. To study the spatio-temporal extremal
    dynamics of such a time series, the latter is assumed to be jointly regularly
    varying. This assumption is shown to be equivalent to convergence in
    distribution of the rescaled time series conditionally on the event that at a
    given moment in time it is far away from the origin.

  10. A functional limit theorem for partial sums of dependent random variables with infinite variance.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Bojan Basrak, Danijel Krizmanić
    Subjects: Probability
    Abstract

    Under an appropriate regular variation condition, the affinely normalized
    partial sums of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random
    variables converges weakly to a non-Gaussian stable random variable. A
    functional version of this is known to be true as well, the limit process being
    a stable L\'evy process.

  11. Tails of correlation mixtures of elliptical copulas.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Hans Manner
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    Correlation mixtures of elliptical copulas arise when the correlation
    parameter is driven itself by a latent random process. For such copulas, both
    penultimate and asymptotic tail dependence are much larger than for ordinary
    elliptical copulas with the same unconditional correlation. Furthermore, for
    Gaussian and Student t-copulas, tail dependence at sub-asymptotic levels is
    generally larger than in the limit, which can have serious consequences for
    estimation and evaluation of extreme risk.

  12. Nonparametric Bayesian Inference on Bivariate Extremes.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Simon Guillotte, Francois Perron
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    The tail of a bivariate distribution function in the domain of attraction of
    a bivariate extreme-value distribution may be approximated by the one of its
    extreme-value attractor. The extreme-value attractor has margins that belong to
    a three-parameter family and a dependence structure which is characterised by a
    spectral measure, that is a probability measure on the unit interval with mean
    equal to one half.

  13. Extreme-Value Copulas.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Gordon Gudendorf
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random
    samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models
    for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not
    only arise naturally in the domain of extreme-value theory, they can also be a
    convenient choice to model general positive dependence structures. The aim of
    this survey is to present the reader with the state-of-the-art in dependence
    modeling via extreme-value copulas.

  14. Risk Concentration and Diversification: Second-Order Properties.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Matthias Degen, Dominik D. Lambrigger
    Subjects: Risk Management
    Abstract

    The quantification of diversification benefits due to risk aggregation plays
    a prominent role in the (regulatory) capital management of large firms within
    the financial industry. However, the complexity of today's risk landscape makes
    a quantifiable reduction of risk concentration a challenging task. In the
    present paper we discuss some of the issues that may arise. The theory of
    second-order regular variation and second-order subexponentiality provides the
    ideal methodological framework to derive second-order approximations for the
    risk concentration and the diversification benefit.

  15. Risk Concentration and Diversification: Second-Order Properties.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Matthias Degen, Dominik D. Lambrigger
    Subjects: Risk Management
    Abstract

    The quantification of diversification benefits due to risk aggregation plays
    a prominent role in the (regulatory) capital management of large firms within
    the financial industry. However, the complexity of today's risk landscape makes
    a quantifiable reduction of risk concentration a challenging task. In the
    present paper we discuss some of the issues that may arise. The theory of
    second-order regular variation and second-order subexponentiality provides the
    ideal methodological framework to derive second-order approximations for the
    risk concentration and the diversification benefit.

  16. Nonparametric estimation of an extreme-value copula in arbitrary dimensions.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Gordon Gudendorf
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    Inference on an extreme-value copula usually proceeds via its Pickands
    dependence function, which is a convex function on the unit simplex satisfying
    certain inequality constraints. In the setting of an iid random sample from a
    multivariate distribution with known margins and unknown extreme-value copula,
    an extension of the Cap\'era\`a-Foug\`eres-Genest estimator was introduced by
    D. Zhang, M. T. Wells and L. Peng [Journal of Multivariate Analysis 99 (2008)
    577-588]. The joint asymptotic distribution of the estimator as a random
    function on the simplex was not provided.

  17. Nonparametric estimation of an extreme-value copula in arbitrary dimensions.

    Authors: Johan Segers, Gordon Gudendorf
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    Inference on an extreme-value copula usually proceeds via its Pickands
    dependence function, which is a convex function on the unit simplex satisfying
    certain inequality constraints. In the setting of an iid random sample from a
    multivariate distribution with known margins and unknown extreme-value copula,
    an extension of the Cap\'era\`a-Foug\`eres-Genest estimator was introduced by
    D. Zhang, M. T. Wells and L. Peng [Journal of Multivariate Analysis 99 (2008)
    577-588]. The joint asymptotic distribution of the estimator as a random
    function on the simplex was not provided.

  18. Maximum empirical likelihood estimation of the spectral measure of an extreme-value distribution.

    Authors: Johan Segers, John H. J. Einmahl
    Subjects: gr. Statistics
    Abstract

    Consider a random sample from a bivariate distribution function $F$ in the
    max-domain of attraction of an extreme-value distribution function $G$. This
    $G$ is characterized by two extreme-value indices and a spectral measure, the
    latter determining the tail dependence structure of $F$. A major issue in
    multivariate extreme-value theory is the estimation of the spectral measure
    $\Phi_p$ with respect to the $L_p$ norm.

  19. Maximum empirical likelihood estimation of the spectral measure of an extreme-value distribution.

    Authors: Johan Segers, John H. J. Einmahl
    Subjects: gr. Statistics
    Abstract

    Consider a random sample from a bivariate distribution function $F$ in the
    max-domain of attraction of an extreme-value distribution function $G$. This
    $G$ is characterized by two extreme-value indices and a spectral measure, the
    latter determining the tail dependence structure of $F$. A major issue in
    multivariate extreme-value theory is the estimation of the spectral measure
    $\Phi_p$ with respect to the $L_p$ norm.

  20. Rank-based inference for bivariate extreme-value copulas.

    Authors: Christian Genest, Johan Segers
    Subjects: gr. Statistics
    Abstract

    Consider a continuous random pair $(X,Y)$ whose dependence is characterized
    by an extreme-value copula with Pickands dependence function $A$. When the
    marginal distributions of $X$ and $Y$ are known, several consistent estimators
    of $A$ are available. Most of them are variants of the estimators due to
    Pickands [Bull. Inst. Internat. Statist. 49 (1981) 859--878] and
    Cap\'{e}ra\`{a}, Foug\`{e}res and Genest [Biometrika 84 (1997) 567--577]. In
    this paper, rank-based versions of these estimators are proposed for the more
    common case where the margins of $X$ and $Y$ are unknown.

  21. Rank-based inference for bivariate extreme-value copulas.

    Authors: Christian Genest, Johan Segers
    Subjects: gr. Statistics
    Abstract

    Consider a continuous random pair $(X,Y)$ whose dependence is characterized
    by an extreme-value copula with Pickands dependence function $A$. When the
    marginal distributions of $X$ and $Y$ are known, several consistent estimators
    of $A$ are available. Most of them are variants of the estimators due to
    Pickands [Bull. Inst. Internat. Statist. 49 (1981) 859--878] and
    Cap\'{e}ra\`{a}, Foug\`{e}res and Genest [Biometrika 84 (1997) 567--577]. In
    this paper, rank-based versions of these estimators are proposed for the more
    common case where the margins of $X$ and $Y$ are unknown.

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