The spectral measure plays a key role in the statistical modeling of
multivariate extremes. Estimation of the spectral measure is a complex issue,
given the need to obey a certain moment condition. We propose a Euclidean
likelihood-based estimator for the spectral measure which is simple and
explicitly defined, with its expression being free of Lagrange multipliers. Our
estimator is shown to have the same limit distribution as the maximum empirical
likelihood estimator of J. H. J. Einmahl and J. Segers, Annals of Statistics
37(5B), 2953--2989 (2009).
A pair-copula construction is a decomposition of a multivariate copula into a
structured system, called regular vine, of bivariate copulae or pair-copulae.
The standard practice is to model these pair-copulae parametrically, which
comes at the cost of a large model risk, with errors propagating throughout the
vine structure. The empirical pair-copula proposed in the paper provides a
nonparametric alternative still achieving the parametric convergence rate.
Consider a random sample in the max-domain of attraction of a multivariate
extreme value distribution such that the dependence structure of the attractor
belongs to a parametric model. A new estimator for the unknown parameter is
defined as the value that minimises the distance between a vector of weighted
integrals of the tail dependence function and their empirical counterparts. The
minimisation problem has, with probability tending to one, a unique, global
solution. The estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal.
This paper suggests five measures of association between two random vectors X
= (X_1, ..., X_p) and Y = (Y_1, ..., Y_q). They are copula based and therefore
invariant with respect to the marginal distributions of the components X_i and
Y_j. The measures capture positive as well as negative association of X and Y.
In case p = q = 1 they reduce to Spearman's rho. Various properties of these
new measures are investigated. Nonparametric estimators, based on ranks, for
the measures are derived and their small sample behaviour is investigated by
simulation.
Extreme-value copulas arise in the asymptotic theory for componentwise maxima
of independent random samples. An extreme-value copula is determined by its
Pickands dependence function, which is a function on the unit simplex subject
to certain shape constraints that arise from an integral transform of an
underlying measure called spectral measure. Multivariate extensions are
provided of certain rank-based nonparametric estimators of the Pickands
dependence function.
Starting from the characterization of extreme-value copulas based on
max-stability, large-sample tests of extreme-value dependence for multivariate
copulas are studied. The two key ingredients of the proposed tests are the
empirical copula of the data and a multiplier technique for obtaining
approximate p-values for the derived statistics. The asymptotic validity of the
multiplier approach is established, and the finite-sample performance of a
large number of candidate test statistics is studied through extensive Monte
Carlo experiments for data sets of dimension two to five.
Weak convergence of the empirical copula process is shown to hold under the
assumption that the first-order partial derivatives of the copula exist and are
continuous on certain subsets of the unit hypercube. The assumption is
nonrestrictive in the sense that it is needed anyway to ensure the candidate
limiting process to exist and have continuous trajectories. In addition,
resampling methods based on the multiplier central limit theorem which require
consistent estimation of the first-order derivatives continue to be valid.
Conditions are given under which the empirical copula process associated with
a random sample from a bivariate continuous distribution has a smaller
asymptotic covariance function than the standard empirical process based on
observations from the copula. Illustrations are provided and consequences for
inference are outlined.
When a spatial process is recorded over time and the observation at a given
time instant is viewed as a point in a function space, the result is a time
series taking values in a Banach space. To study the spatio-temporal extremal
dynamics of such a time series, the latter is assumed to be jointly regularly
varying. This assumption is shown to be equivalent to convergence in
distribution of the rescaled time series conditionally on the event that at a
given moment in time it is far away from the origin.
Under an appropriate regular variation condition, the affinely normalized
partial sums of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random
variables converges weakly to a non-Gaussian stable random variable. A
functional version of this is known to be true as well, the limit process being
a stable L\'evy process.
Correlation mixtures of elliptical copulas arise when the correlation
parameter is driven itself by a latent random process. For such copulas, both
penultimate and asymptotic tail dependence are much larger than for ordinary
elliptical copulas with the same unconditional correlation. Furthermore, for
Gaussian and Student t-copulas, tail dependence at sub-asymptotic levels is
generally larger than in the limit, which can have serious consequences for
estimation and evaluation of extreme risk.
The tail of a bivariate distribution function in the domain of attraction of
a bivariate extreme-value distribution may be approximated by the one of its
extreme-value attractor. The extreme-value attractor has margins that belong to
a three-parameter family and a dependence structure which is characterised by a
spectral measure, that is a probability measure on the unit interval with mean
equal to one half.
Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random
samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models
for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not
only arise naturally in the domain of extreme-value theory, they can also be a
convenient choice to model general positive dependence structures. The aim of
this survey is to present the reader with the state-of-the-art in dependence
modeling via extreme-value copulas.
The quantification of diversification benefits due to risk aggregation plays
a prominent role in the (regulatory) capital management of large firms within
the financial industry. However, the complexity of today's risk landscape makes
a quantifiable reduction of risk concentration a challenging task. In the
present paper we discuss some of the issues that may arise. The theory of
second-order regular variation and second-order subexponentiality provides the
ideal methodological framework to derive second-order approximations for the
risk concentration and the diversification benefit.
The quantification of diversification benefits due to risk aggregation plays
a prominent role in the (regulatory) capital management of large firms within
the financial industry. However, the complexity of today's risk landscape makes
a quantifiable reduction of risk concentration a challenging task. In the
present paper we discuss some of the issues that may arise. The theory of
second-order regular variation and second-order subexponentiality provides the
ideal methodological framework to derive second-order approximations for the
risk concentration and the diversification benefit.
Inference on an extreme-value copula usually proceeds via its Pickands
dependence function, which is a convex function on the unit simplex satisfying
certain inequality constraints. In the setting of an iid random sample from a
multivariate distribution with known margins and unknown extreme-value copula,
an extension of the Cap\'era\`a-Foug\`eres-Genest estimator was introduced by
D. Zhang, M. T. Wells and L. Peng [Journal of Multivariate Analysis 99 (2008)
577-588]. The joint asymptotic distribution of the estimator as a random
function on the simplex was not provided.
Inference on an extreme-value copula usually proceeds via its Pickands
dependence function, which is a convex function on the unit simplex satisfying
certain inequality constraints. In the setting of an iid random sample from a
multivariate distribution with known margins and unknown extreme-value copula,
an extension of the Cap\'era\`a-Foug\`eres-Genest estimator was introduced by
D. Zhang, M. T. Wells and L. Peng [Journal of Multivariate Analysis 99 (2008)
577-588]. The joint asymptotic distribution of the estimator as a random
function on the simplex was not provided.
Consider a random sample from a bivariate distribution function $F$ in the
max-domain of attraction of an extreme-value distribution function $G$. This
$G$ is characterized by two extreme-value indices and a spectral measure, the
latter determining the tail dependence structure of $F$. A major issue in
multivariate extreme-value theory is the estimation of the spectral measure
$\Phi_p$ with respect to the $L_p$ norm.
Consider a random sample from a bivariate distribution function $F$ in the
max-domain of attraction of an extreme-value distribution function $G$. This
$G$ is characterized by two extreme-value indices and a spectral measure, the
latter determining the tail dependence structure of $F$. A major issue in
multivariate extreme-value theory is the estimation of the spectral measure
$\Phi_p$ with respect to the $L_p$ norm.
Consider a continuous random pair $(X,Y)$ whose dependence is characterized
by an extreme-value copula with Pickands dependence function $A$. When the
marginal distributions of $X$ and $Y$ are known, several consistent estimators
of $A$ are available. Most of them are variants of the estimators due to
Pickands [Bull. Inst. Internat. Statist. 49 (1981) 859--878] and
Cap\'{e}ra\`{a}, Foug\`{e}res and Genest [Biometrika 84 (1997) 567--577]. In
this paper, rank-based versions of these estimators are proposed for the more
common case where the margins of $X$ and $Y$ are unknown.
Consider a continuous random pair $(X,Y)$ whose dependence is characterized
by an extreme-value copula with Pickands dependence function $A$. When the
marginal distributions of $X$ and $Y$ are known, several consistent estimators
of $A$ are available. Most of them are variants of the estimators due to
Pickands [Bull. Inst. Internat. Statist. 49 (1981) 859--878] and
Cap\'{e}ra\`{a}, Foug\`{e}res and Genest [Biometrika 84 (1997) 567--577]. In
this paper, rank-based versions of these estimators are proposed for the more
common case where the margins of $X$ and $Y$ are unknown.