The problem of sequentially testing a simple null hypothesis versus a
discrete, composite alternative hypothesis is considered. We study sequential
tests that use weighted generalized likelihood ratio statistics and
mixture-based likelihood ratio statistics. It is shown that both tests have two
kinds of asymptotic optimality as error probabilities go to zero. First, for
any weights, they minimize asymptotically to first order the expected sample
size under every possible state of the world.
We study the behavior of mixture stopping rules in the one-sided sequential
hypothesis testing problem with a simple null hypothesis and a composite
alternative hypothesis. When the alternative hypothesis consists of a finite
set of probability measures, we show how to select a particular mixing
distribution in order to obtain a nearly minimax mixture test in the sense of
minimizing the maximal Kullback-Leibler information.
We provide an overview of the state-of-the-art in the area of sequential
change-point detection assuming discrete time and known pre- and post-change
distributions. The overview spans over all major formulations of the underlying
optimization problem, namely, Bayesian, generalized Bayesian, and minimax. We
pay particular attention to the latest advances in each. Also, we link together
the generalized Bayesian problem with multi-cyclic disorder detection in a
stationary regime when the change occurs at a distant time horizon.
Several variations of the Shiryaev-Roberts detection procedure in the context
of the simple changepoint problem are considered: starting the procedure at
$R_0=0$ (the original Shiryaev-Roberts procedure), at $R_0=r$ for fixed $r>0$,
and at $R_0$ that has a quasi-stationary distribution. Comparisons of operating
characteristics are made. The differences fade as the average run length to
false alarm tends to infinity.
For the most popular sequential change detection rules such as CUSUM, EWMA,
and the Shiryaev-Roberts test, we develop integral equations and a concise
numerical method to compute a number of performance metrics, including average
detection delay and average time to false alarm. We pay special attention to
the Shiryaev-Roberts procedure and evaluate its performance for various
initialization strategies.
The CUSUM procedure is known to be optimal for detecting a change in
distribution under a minimax scenario, whereas the Shiryaev-Roberts procedure
is optimal for detecting a change that occurs at a distant time horizon. As a
simpler alternative to the conventional Monte Carlo approach, we propose a
numerical method for the systematic comparison of the two detection schemes in
both settings, i.e., minimax and for detecting changes that occur in the
distant future.
In 1985, for detecting changes in distributions Pollak introduced a specific
minimax performance metric and a randomized version of the Shiryaev-Roberts
procedure where the zero initial condition is replaced by a random variable
sampled from the quasi-stationary distribution. Pollak proved that this
procedure is third-order asymptotically optimal as the mean time to false alarm
becomes large. The question whether Pollak's procedure is strictly minimax for
any false alarm rate has been open for more than two decades, and there were
several attempts to prove this strict optimality.