In this paper we propose a sparse coefficient estimation procedure for
autoregressive (AR) models based on penalized conditional maximum likelihood.
The penalized conditional maximum likelihood estimator (PCMLE) thus developed
has the advantage of performing simultaneous coefficient estimation and model
selection. Mild conditions are given on the penalty function and the innovation
process, under which the PCMLE satisfies a strong consistency, local $N^{-1/2}$
consistency, and oracle property, respectively, where N is sample size.
In the analysis of cluster data, the regression coefficients are frequently
assumed to be the same across all clusters. This hampers the ability to study
the varying impacts of factors on each cluster. In this paper, a semiparametric
model is introduced to account for varying impacts of factors over clusters by
using cluster-level covariates. It achieves the parsimony of parametrization
and allows the explorations of nonlinear interactions. The random effect in the
semiparametric model also accounts for within-cluster correlation.