We present an arbitrage-free non-parametric yield curve prediction model
which takes the full (discretized) yield curve as state variable. We believe
that absence of arbitrage is an important model feature in case of highly
correlated data, as it is the case for interest rates. Furthermore, the model
structure allows to separate clearly the tasks of estimating the volatility
structure and of calibrating market prices of risk. The empirical part includes
tests on modeling assumptions, back testing and a comparison with the
Vasi\v{c}ek short rate model.
We introduce efficient numerical methods for generic HJM equations of
interest rate theory by means of high-order weak approximation schemes. These
schemes allow for QMC implementations due to the relatively low dimensional
integration space. The complexity of the resulting algorithm is considerably
lower than the complexity of multi-level MC algorithms as long as the optimal
order of QMC-convergence is guaranteed.
We provide a new proof for regularity of affine processes on general state
spaces by methods from the theory of Markovian semimartingales. On the way to
this result we also show that the definition of an affine process, namely as
stochastically continuous time-homogeneous Markov process with exponential
affine Fourier-Laplace transform, already implies the existence of a c\`adl\`ag
version. This was one of the last open issues in the fundaments of affine
processes.
We construct normed spaces of real-valued functions with controlled growth on
possibly infinite-dimensional state spaces such that semigroups of positive,
bounded operators $(P_t)_{t\ge 0}$ thereon with $\lim_{t\to 0+}P_t f(x)=f(x)$
are in fact strongly continuous. This result applies to prove optimal rates of
convergence of splitting schemes for stochastic (partial) differential
equations with linearly growing characteristics and for sets of functions with
controlled growth. Applications are general Da Prato-Zabczyk type equations and
the HJM equations from interest rate theory.
We provide a general and flexible approach to LIBOR modeling based on the
class of affine factor processes. Our approach respects the basic economic
requirement that LIBOR rates are non-negative, and the basic requirement from
mathematical finance that LIBOR rates are analytically tractable martingales
with respect to their own forward measure. Additionally, and most importantly,
our approach also leads to analytically tractable expressions of multi-LIBOR
payoffs. This approach unifies therefore the advantages of well-known forward
price models with those of classical LIBOR rate models.
By means of an original approach, called "method of the moving frame", we
establish existence, uniqueness and stability results for mild and weak
solutions of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) with path
dependent coefficients driven by an infinite dimensional Wiener process and a
compensated Poisson random measure. Our approach is based on a time-dependent
coordinate transform, which reduces a wide class of SPDEs to a class of simpler
SDE problems.
We review Fujiwara's scheme, a sixth order weak approximation scheme for the
numerical approximation of SDEs, and embed it into a general method to
construct weak approximation schemes of order $ 2m $ for $ m \in \mathbf{N} $.
Those schemes cannot be seen as cubature schemes, but rather as universal ways
how to extrapolate from a lower order weak approximation scheme, namely the
Ninomiya-Victoir scheme, for higher orders.
We give a rigorous proof of the representation of implied volatility as a
time-average of weighted expectations of local or stochastic volatility. With
this proof we fix the problem of a circular definition in the original
derivation of Gatheral, who introduced this implied volatility representation
in his book 'The Volatility Surface'.
We construct default-free interest rate models in the spirit of the
well-known Markov funcional models: our focus is analytic tractability of the
models and generality of the approach. We work in the setting of state price
densities and construct models by means of the so called propagation property.
The propagation property can be found implicitly in all of the popular state
price density approaches, in particular heat kernels share the propagation
property (wherefrom we deduced the name of the approach). As a related matter,
an interesting property of heat kernels is presented, too.
This paper provides the mathematical foundation for stochastically continuous
affine processes on the cone of positive semidefinite symmetric matrices. These
matrix-valued affine processes have arisen from a large and growing range of
useful applications in finance, including multi-asset option pricing with
stochastic volatility and correlation structures, and fixed-income models with
stochastically correlated risk factors and default intensities.
This paper provides the mathematical foundation for stochastically continuous
affine processes on the cone of positive semidefinite symmetric matrices. These
matrix-valued affine processes have arisen from a large and growing range of
useful applications in finance, including multi-asset option pricing with
stochastic volatility and correlation structures, and fixed-income models with
stochastically correlated risk factors and default intensities.
In this note we introduce a new approach to rough and stochastic partial
differential equations (RPDEs and SPDEs): we consider general Banach spaces as
state spaces and -- for the sake of simiplicity -- finite dimensional sources
of noise, either rough or stochastic. By means of a time-dependent
transformation of state space and rough path theory we are able to construct
unique solutions of the respective R- and SPDEs.