Linda Vos

  1. Futures pricing in electricity markets based on stable CARMA spot models.

    Authors: Claudia Klüppelberg, Fred Espen Benth, Gernot Müller, Linda Vos
    Subjects: Applications
    Abstract

    We present a new model for the electricity spot price dynamics, which is able
    to capture seasonality, low-frequency dynamics and the extreme spikes in the
    market. Instead of the usual purely deterministic trend we introduce a
    non-stationary independent increments process for the low-frequency dynamics,
    and model the large fluctuations by a non-Gaussian stable CARMA process. The
    model allows for analytic futures prices, and we apply these to model and
    estimate the whole market consistently.

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