Bryan Grenfell

  1. Emulating a gravity model to infer the spatiotemporal dynamics of an infectious disease.

    Authors: Murali Haran, Roman Jandarov, Ottar Bjørnstad, Bryan Grenfell
    Subjects: Methodology
    Abstract

    Extremely contagious, acute, immunizing childhood infections like measles can
    exhibit spatiotemporal dynamics that depend on the nature of spatial contagion
    and spatiotemporal variations in population structure and demography. We study
    a metapopulation model for regional measles dynamics that uses a gravity
    coupling model and a time series susceptible- infected-recovered (TSIR) model
    for local dynamics.

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