David B. Stephenson

  1. On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts.

    Authors: Tim E. Jupp, Rachel Lowe, Caio A.S. Coelho, David B. Stephenson
    Subjects: Applications
    Abstract

    We develop a geometrical interpretation of ternary probabilistic forecasts in
    which forecasts and observations are regarded as points inside a triangle.
    Within the triangle, we define a continuous colour palette in which hue and
    colour saturation are defined with reference to the observed climatology. In
    contrast to current methods, forecast maps created with this colour scheme
    convey all of the information present in each ternary forecast.

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