Gert de Cooman

  1. Epistemic irrelevance in credal nets: the case of imprecise Markov trees.

    Authors: Gert de Cooman, Filip Hermans, Alessandro Antonucci, Marco Zaffalon
    Subjects: Artificial Intelligence
    Abstract

    We focus on credal nets, which are graphical models that generalise Bayesian
    nets to imprecise probability. We replace the notion of strong independence
    commonly used in credal nets with the weaker notion of epistemic irrelevance,
    which is arguably more suited for a behavioural theory of probability. Focusing
    on directed trees, we show how to combine the given local uncertainty models in
    the nodes of the graph into a global model, and we use this to construct and
    justify an exact message-passing algorithm that computes updated beliefs for a
    variable in the tree.

  2. Exchangeability and sets of desirable gambles.

    Authors: Gert de Cooman, Erik Quaeghebeur
    Subjects: Probability
    Abstract

    Sets of desirable gambles constitute a quite general type of uncertainty
    model with an interesting geometrical interpretation. We give a general
    discussion of such models and their rationality criteria. We study
    exchangeability assessments for them, and prove counterparts of de Finetti's
    finite and infinite representation theorems. We show that the finite
    representation in terms of count vectors has a very nice geometrical
    interpretation, and that the representation in terms of frequency vectors is
    tied up with multivariate Bernstein (basis) polynomials.

  3. Exchangeable lower previsions.

    Authors: Gert de Cooman, Erik Quaeghebeur, Enrique Miranda
    Subjects: Probability
    Abstract

    We extend de Finetti's [Ann. Inst. H. Poincar\'{e} 7 (1937) 1--68] notion of
    exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a
    subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions
    rather than (linear) previsions. We derive representation theorems in both the
    finite and countable cases, in terms of sampling without and with replacement,
    respectively.

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