We focus on credal nets, which are graphical models that generalise Bayesian
nets to imprecise probability. We replace the notion of strong independence
commonly used in credal nets with the weaker notion of epistemic irrelevance,
which is arguably more suited for a behavioural theory of probability. Focusing
on directed trees, we show how to combine the given local uncertainty models in
the nodes of the graph into a global model, and we use this to construct and
justify an exact message-passing algorithm that computes updated beliefs for a
variable in the tree.
Sets of desirable gambles constitute a quite general type of uncertainty
model with an interesting geometrical interpretation. We give a general
discussion of such models and their rationality criteria. We study
exchangeability assessments for them, and prove counterparts of de Finetti's
finite and infinite representation theorems. We show that the finite
representation in terms of count vectors has a very nice geometrical
interpretation, and that the representation in terms of frequency vectors is
tied up with multivariate Bernstein (basis) polynomials.
We extend de Finetti's [Ann. Inst. H. Poincar\'{e} 7 (1937) 1--68] notion of
exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a
subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions
rather than (linear) previsions. We derive representation theorems in both the
finite and countable cases, in terms of sampling without and with replacement,
respectively.