We propose a model-based vulnerability index of the population from Uruguay
to vector-borne diseases. We have available measurements of a set of variables
in the census tract level of the 19 Departmental capitals of Uruguay. In
particular, we propose an index that combines different sources of information
via a set of micro-environmental indicators and geographical location in the
country.
Particle learning (PL) provides state filtering, sequential parameter
learning and smoothing in a general class of state space models. Our approach
extends existing particle methods by incorporating the estimation of static
parameters via a fully-adapted filter that utilizes conditional sufficient
statistics for parameters and/or states as particles. State smoothing in the
presence of parameter uncertainty is also solved as a by-product of PL. In a
number of examples, we show that PL outperforms existing particle filtering
alternatives and proves to be a competitor to MCMC.