The common wisdom argues that, in general, large trades cause large price
changes, while small trades cause small price changes. However, for extremely
large price changes, the trade size and news play a minor role, while the
liquidity (especially price gaps on the limit order book) is a more influencing
factor. Hence, there might be other influencing factors of immediate price
impacts of trades.
We have studied the empirical distribution of cancellation positions through
rebuilding the limit-order book using the order flow data of 23 liquid stocks
traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the year 2003. We find that the
probability density function (PDF) of relative price levels where cancellations
allocate obeys the log-normal distribution. We then analyze the PDF of
normalized relative price levels by removing the factor of order numbers stored
at the price level, and find that the PDF has a power-law behavior in the tails
for both buy and sell orders.
The Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with
finite-time singular crash hazard rates has been developed to describe the
dynamics of financial bubbles and crashes. It has been applied successfully to
a large variety of financial bubbles in many different markets. Having been
developed for more than one decade, the JLS model has been studied, analyzed,
used and criticized by several researchers. Much of this discussion is helpful
for advancing the research.
We propose a new set of stylized facts quantifying the structure of financial
markets. The key idea is to study the combined structure of both investment
strategies and prices in order to open a qualitatively new level of
understanding of financial and economic markets. We study the detailed order
flow on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China for the whole year of 2003.
We investigate the daily correlation present among market indices of stock
exchanges located all over the world in the time period Jan 1996 - Jul 2009. We
discover that the correlation among market indices presents both a fast and a
slow dynamics. The slow dynamics reflects the development and consolidation of
globalization. The fast dynamics is associated with critical events that
originate in a specific country or region of the world and rapidly affect the
global system.
There are a number of situations in which several signals are simultaneously
recorded in complex systems, which exhibit long-term power-law
cross-correlations. The multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis
(MF-DCCA) approaches can be used to quantify such cross-correlations, such as
the MF-DCCA based on detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-X-DFA) method. We
develop in this work a class of MF-DCCA algorithms based on the detrending
moving average analysis, called MF-X-DMA.
This paper conducts an empirically study on the trade package composed of a
sequence of consecutive purchases or sales of 23 stocks in Chinese stock
market. We investigate the probability distributions of the execution time, the
number of trades and the total trading volume of trade packages, and analyze
the possible scaling relations between them. Quantitative differences are
observed between the institutional and individual investors.
Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag
dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path
method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the
stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii)
the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the
central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction.
Intertrade duration of equities is an important financial measure
characterizing the trading activities, which is defined as the waiting time
between successive trades of an equity. Using the ultrahigh-frequency data of a
liquid Chinese stock and its associated warrant, we perform a comparative
investigation of the statistical properties of their intertrade duration time
series. The distributions of the two equities can be better described by the
shifted power-law form than the Weibull and their scaled distributions do not
collapse onto a single curve.
The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is a widely used technique to
quantify the long-term correlations of non-stationary time series and the
long-range correlations of fractal surfaces, which contains a parameter
$\theta$ determining the position of the detrending window. We develop
multifractal detrending moving average (MFDMA) algorithms for the analysis of
one-dimensional multifractal measures and higher-dimensional multifractals,
which is a generalization of the DMA method.
This is the second installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we
provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify
7 bubbles in 7 different global assets; for 4 of these assets, we present
windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide
that document of the original analysis on 1 November 2010.
There is convincing evidence showing that the probability distributions of
stock returns in mature markets exhibit power-law tails and both the positive
and negative tails conform to the inverse cubic law. It supports the
possibility that the tail exponents are universal at least for mature markets
in the sense that they do not depend on stock market, industry sector, and
market capitalization. We investigate the distributions of one-minute intraday
returns of all the A-share stocks traded in the Chinese stock market, which is
the largest emerging market in the world.
We provide an empirical investigation aimed at uncovering the statistical
properties of intricate stock trading networks based on the order flow data of
a highly liquid stock (Shenzhen Development Bank) listed on Shenzhen Stock
Exchange during the whole year of 2003. By reconstructing the limit order book,
we can extract detailed information of each executed order for each trading day
and demonstrate that the trade size distributions for different trading days
exhibit power-law tails and that most of the estimated power-law exponents are
well within the L{\'e}vy stable regime.
We study the dynamics of order flows around large intraday price changes
using ultra-high-frequency data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We find a
significant reversal of price for both intraday price decreases and increases
with a permanent price impact. The volatility, the volume of different types of
orders, the bid-ask spread, and the volume imbalance increase before the
extreme events and decay slowly as a power law, which forms a well-established
peak.
We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals $\tau$
between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold $q$. The
recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks
covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from
January 2003 to April 2009.
The private car license plates issued in Shanghai are bestowed the title of
"the most expensive sheet iron all over the world", more expensive than gold. A
citizen has to bid in an monthly auction to obtain a license plate for his new
private car.
Many financial variables are found to exhibit multifractal nature, which is
usually attributed to the influence of temporal correlations and fat-tailedness
in the probability distribution (PDF). Based on the partition function approach
of multifractal analysis, we show that there is a marked finite-size effect in
the detection of multifractality, and the effective multifractality is the
apparent multifractality after removing the finite-size effect. We find that
the effective multifractality can be further decomposed into two components,
the PDF component and the nonlinearity component.
The superfamily phenomenon of time series with different dynamics can be
characterized by the motif rank patterns observed in the nearest-neighbor
networks of the time series in phase space. However, the determinants of
superfamily classification are unclear. We attack this problem by studying the
influence of linear temporal correlations and multifractality using fractional
Brownian motions (FBMs) and multifractal random walks (MRWs).
We perform a systematic investigation on the components of the empirical
multifractality of financial returns using the daily data of Dow Jones
Industrial Average from 26 May 1896 to 27 April 2007 as an example. The
temporal structure and fat-tailed distribution of the returns are considered as
possible influence factors.
The order submission and cancelation processes are two crucial aspects in the
price formation of stocks traded in order-driven markets. We investigate the
dynamics of order cancelation by studying the statistical properties of
inter-cancelation durations defined as the waiting times between consecutive
order cancelations of 22 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of
China in year 2003.
The investigations of financial markets from a complex network perspective
have unveiled many phenomenological properties, in which the majority of these
studies map the financial markets into one complex network. In this work, we
investigate 30 world stock market indices through their visibility graphs by
adopting the visibility algorithm to convert each single stock index into one
visibility graph. A universal allometric scaling law is uncovered in the
minimal spanning trees, whose scaling exponent is independent of the stock
market and the length of the stock index.
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii)
behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii)
the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions,
the log-periodic power law model has been developed as a flexible tool to
detect bubbles. The LPPL model considers the faster-than-exponential (power law
with finite-time singularity) increase in asset prices decorated by
accelerating oscillations as the main diagnostic of bubbles.
We investigate the probability distributions of the recurrence intervals
$\tau$ between consecutive 1-min returns above a positive threshold $q>0$ or
below a negative threshold $q<0$ of two indices and 20 individual stocks in
China's stock market. The distributions of recurrence intervals for positive
and negative thresholds are symmetric, and display power-law tails tested by
three goodness-of-fit measures including the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic,
the weighted KS statistic and the Cram\'er-von Mises criterion.