Wei-Xing Zhou

  1. Determinants of immediate price impacts at the trade level in an emerging order-driven market.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    The common wisdom argues that, in general, large trades cause large price
    changes, while small trades cause small price changes. However, for extremely
    large price changes, the trade size and news play a minor role, while the
    liquidity (especially price gaps on the limit order book) is a more influencing
    factor. Hence, there might be other influencing factors of immediate price
    impacts of trades.

  2. Scaling and universality in the position profiles of order cancellations in an emerging stock market.

    Authors: Fei Ren, Wei-Xing Zhou, Gao-Feng Gu
    Subjects: Trading and Market Microstructure
    Abstract

    We have studied the empirical distribution of cancellation positions through
    rebuilding the limit-order book using the order flow data of 23 liquid stocks
    traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the year 2003. We find that the
    probability density function (PDF) of relative price levels where cancellations
    allocate obeys the log-normal distribution. We then analyze the PDF of
    normalized relative price levels by removing the factor of order numbers stored
    at the price level, and find that the PDF has a power-law behavior in the tails
    for both buy and sell orders.

  3. Clarifications to Questions and Criticisms on the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette Bubble Model.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette, Ryan Woodard, Wanfeng Yan
    Subjects: General Finance
    Abstract

    The Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with
    finite-time singular crash hazard rates has been developed to describe the
    dynamics of financial bubbles and crashes. It has been applied successfully to
    a large variety of financial bubbles in many different markets. Having been
    developed for more than one decade, the JLS model has been studied, analyzed,
    used and criticized by several researchers. Much of this discussion is helpful
    for advancing the research.

  4. Strategies used as spectroscopy of financial markets reveal new stylized facts.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette, Wei Chen, Guo-Hua Mu
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    We propose a new set of stylized facts quantifying the structure of financial
    markets. The key idea is to study the combined structure of both investment
    strategies and prices in order to open a qualitatively new level of
    understanding of financial and economic markets. We study the detailed order
    flow on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China for the whole year of 2003.

  5. Evolution of worldwide stock markets, correlation structure and correlation based graphs.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Rosario N. Mantegna, Dong-Ming Song, Michele Tumminello
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    We investigate the daily correlation present among market indices of stock
    exchanges located all over the world in the time period Jan 1996 - Jul 2009. We
    discover that the correlation among market indices presents both a fast and a
    slow dynamics. The slow dynamics reflects the development and consolidation of
    globalization. The fast dynamics is associated with critical events that
    originate in a specific country or region of the world and rapidly affect the
    global system.

  6. Multifractal detrending moving average cross-correlation analysis.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Zhi-Qiang Jiang
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    There are a number of situations in which several signals are simultaneously
    recorded in complex systems, which exhibit long-term power-law
    cross-correlations. The multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis
    (MF-DCCA) approaches can be used to quantify such cross-correlations, such as
    the MF-DCCA based on detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-X-DFA) method. We
    develop in this work a class of MF-DCCA algorithms based on the detrending
    moving average analysis, called MF-X-DMA.

  7. Analysis of trade packages in Chinese stock market.

    Authors: Fei Ren, Wei-Xing Zhou
    Subjects: Trading and Market Microstructure
    Abstract

    This paper conducts an empirically study on the trade package composed of a
    sequence of consecutive purchases or sales of 23 stocks in Chinese stock
    market. We investigate the probability distributions of the execution time, the
    number of trades and the total trading volume of trade packages, and analyze
    the possible scaling relations between them. Quantitative differences are
    observed between the institutional and individual investors.

  8. The US stock market leads the Federal funds rate and Treasury bond yields.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette, Kun Guo, Si-Wei Cheng
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag
    dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path
    method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the
    stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii)
    the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the
    central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction.

  9. Long-term correlations and multifractal nature in the intertrade durations of a liquid Chinese stock and its warrant.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Yong-Ping Ruan
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    Intertrade duration of equities is an important financial measure
    characterizing the trading activities, which is defined as the waiting time
    between successive trades of an equity. Using the ultrahigh-frequency data of a
    liquid Chinese stock and its associated warrant, we perform a comparative
    investigation of the statistical properties of their intertrade duration time
    series. The distributions of the two equities can be better described by the
    shifted power-law form than the Weibull and their scaled distributions do not
    collapse onto a single curve.

  10. Detrending moving average algorithm for multifractals.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Gao-Feng Gu
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is a widely used technique to
    quantify the long-term correlations of non-stationary time series and the
    long-range correlations of fractal surfaces, which contains a parameter
    $\theta$ determining the position of the detrending window. We develop
    multifractal detrending moving average (MFDMA) algorithms for the analysis of
    one-dimensional multifractal measures and higher-dimensional multifractals,
    which is a generalization of the DMA method.

  11. The Financial Bubble Experiment: Advanced Diagnostics and Forecasts of Bubble Terminations Volume II-Master Document.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette, Ryan Woodard, Stefan Reimann, Maxim Fedorovsky, Hilary Woodard
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    This is the second installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we
    provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify
    7 bubbles in 7 different global assets; for 4 of these assets, we present
    windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide
    that document of the original analysis on 1 November 2010.

  12. Nonuniversal distributions of stock returns in an emerging market.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Guo-Hua Mu
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    There is convincing evidence showing that the probability distributions of
    stock returns in mature markets exhibit power-law tails and both the positive
    and negative tails conform to the inverse cubic law. It supports the
    possibility that the tail exponents are universal at least for mature markets
    in the sense that they do not depend on stock market, industry sector, and
    market capitalization. We investigate the distributions of one-minute intraday
    returns of all the A-share stocks traded in the Chinese stock market, which is
    the largest emerging market in the world.

  13. Complex stock trading network among investors.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Zhi-Qiang Jiang
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    We provide an empirical investigation aimed at uncovering the statistical
    properties of intricate stock trading networks based on the order flow data of
    a highly liquid stock (Shenzhen Development Bank) listed on Shenzhen Stock
    Exchange during the whole year of 2003. By reconstructing the limit order book,
    we can extract detailed information of each executed order for each trading day
    and demonstrate that the trade size distributions for different trading days
    exhibit power-law tails and that most of the estimated power-law exponents are
    well within the L{\'e}vy stable regime.

  14. Order flow dynamics around extreme price changes on an emerging stock market.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Wei Chen, Guo-Hua Mu, Janos Kertesz
    Subjects: Trading and Market Microstructure
    Abstract

    We study the dynamics of order flows around large intraday price changes
    using ultra-high-frequency data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We find a
    significant reversal of price for both intraday price decreases and increases
    with a permanent price impact. The volatility, the volume of different types of
    orders, the bid-ask spread, and the volume imbalance increase before the
    extreme events and decay slowly as a power law, which forms a well-established
    peak.

  15. Recurrence interval analysis of trading volumes.

    Authors: Fei Ren, Wei-Xing Zhou
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals $\tau$
    between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold $q$. The
    recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks
    covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from
    January 2003 to April 2009.

  16. Analyzing the prices of the most expensive sheet iron all over the world: Modeling, prediction and regime change.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Fu-Tie Song
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    The private car license plates issued in Shanghai are bestowed the title of
    "the most expensive sheet iron all over the world", more expensive than gold. A
    citizen has to bid in an monthly auction to obtain a license plate for his new
    private car.

  17. Finite-size effect and the components of multifractality in financial volatility.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    Many financial variables are found to exhibit multifractal nature, which is
    usually attributed to the influence of temporal correlations and fat-tailedness
    in the probability distribution (PDF). Based on the partition function approach
    of multifractal analysis, we show that there is a marked finite-size effect in
    the detection of multifractality, and the effective multifractality is the
    apparent multifractality after removing the finite-size effect. We find that
    the effective multifractality can be further decomposed into two components,
    the PDF component and the nonlinearity component.

  18. Superfamily classification of nonstationary time series based on DFA scaling exponents.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Chuang Liu
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    The superfamily phenomenon of time series with different dynamics can be
    characterized by the motif rank patterns observed in the nearest-neighbor
    networks of the time series in phase space. However, the determinants of
    superfamily classification are unclear. We attack this problem by studying the
    influence of linear temporal correlations and multifractality using fractional
    Brownian motions (FBMs) and multifractal random walks (MRWs).

  19. The components of empirical multifractality in financial returns.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    We perform a systematic investigation on the components of the empirical
    multifractality of financial returns using the daily data of Dow Jones
    Industrial Average from 26 May 1896 to 27 April 2007 as an example. The
    temporal structure and fat-tailed distribution of the returns are considered as
    possible influence factors.

  20. Scaling and memory in the non-poisson process of limit order cancelation.

    Authors: Fei Ren, Wei-Xing Zhou, Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Xiao-Hui Ni, Gao-Feng Gu, Wei Chen
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    The order submission and cancelation processes are two crucial aspects in the
    price formation of stocks traded in order-driven markets. We investigate the
    dynamics of order cancelation by studying the statistical properties of
    inter-cancelation durations defined as the waiting times between consecutive
    order cancelations of 22 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of
    China in year 2003.

  21. Universal and nonuniversal allometric scaling behaviors in the visibility graphs of world stock market indices.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Meng-Cen Qian
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    The investigations of financial markets from a complex network perspective
    have unveiled many phenomenological properties, in which the majority of these
    studies map the financial markets into one complex network. In this work, we
    investigate 30 world stock market indices through their visibility graphs by
    adopting the visibility algorithm to convert each single stock index into one
    visibility graph. A universal allometric scaling law is uncovered in the
    minimal spanning trees, whose scaling exponent is independent of the stock
    market and the length of the stock index.

  22. Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles.

    Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Didier Sornette, Ryan Woodard, Ken Bastiaensen, Peter Cauwels
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii)
    behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii)
    the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions,
    the log-periodic power law model has been developed as a flexible tool to
    detect bubbles. The LPPL model considers the faster-than-exponential (power law
    with finite-time singularity) increase in asset prices decorated by
    accelerating oscillations as the main diagnostic of bubbles.

  23. Recurrence interval analysis of high-frequency financial returns and its application to risk estimation.

    Authors: Fei Ren, Wei-Xing Zhou
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    We investigate the probability distributions of the recurrence intervals
    $\tau$ between consecutive 1-min returns above a positive threshold $q>0$ or
    below a negative threshold $q<0$ of two indices and 20 individual stocks in
    China's stock market. The distributions of recurrence intervals for positive
    and negative thresholds are symmetric, and display power-law tails tested by
    three goodness-of-fit measures including the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic,
    the weighted KS statistic and the Cram\'er-von Mises criterion.

RSS-материал