This article deals with detection of nonconstant long memory parameter in
time series. The null hypothesis presumes stationary or nonstationary time
series with constant long memory parameter, typically an I(d) series with
d>-.5. The alternative corresponds to an increase in persistence and includes
in particular an abrupt or gradual change from I(d_1) to I(d_2).
In this paper, we study a non-linear model used to estimate and forecast the
electricity load, that usually requires four or more years worth of data to
avoid any overfitting phenomenon. We first propose a non-informative prior to
be used when the number of observations is large enough. When the observations
are too few, we propose a hierarchical prior to include information coming from
another bigger, similar, sample. The posterior densities associated with these
two priors are derived and a MCMC algorithm is provided in each case.
Some convergence results on the kernel density estimator are proven for a
class of linear processes with seasonal effects. In particular we extend the
results of Ho and Hsing (1996a) and Mielniczuk (1997) to the stationary
processes for which the singularities of the spectral density are not limited
to the origin. We show that the convergence rates and the limit distribution
may be different in this context.
This paper reviews and extends some recent results on the multivariate
fractional Brownian motion (mfBm) and its increment process. A characterization
of the mfBm through its covariance function is obtained. Similarly, the
correlation and spectral analyses of the increments are investigated. On the
other hand we show that (almost) all mfBm's may be reached as the limit of
partial sums of (super)linear processes. Finally, an algorithm to perfectly
simulate the mfBm is presented and illustrated by some simulations.
In the focus of our attention is the asymptotic properties of the sequence of
convex hulls which arise as a result of a peeling procedure applied to the
convex hull generated by a Poisson point process. Processes of the considered
type are tightly connected with empirical point processes and stable random
vectors. Results are given about the limit shape of the convex hulls in the
case of a discrete spectral measure. We give some numerical experiments to
illustrate the peeling procedure for a more large class of Poisson point
processes.
We construct a two-sample test for comparison of long memory parameters based
on ratios of two rescaled variance (V/S) statistics studied in [Giraitis L.,
Leipus, R., Philippe, A., 2006. A test for stationarity versus trends and unit
roots for a wide class of dependent errors. Econometric Theory 21, 989--1029].
The two samples have the same length and can be mutually independent or
dependent. In the latter case, the test statistic is modified to make it
asymptotically free of the long-run correlation coefficient between the
samples.
Limit theorems are proved for quadratic forms of Gaussian random fields in
presence of long memory. We obtain a non central limit theorem under a minimal
integrability condition, which allows isotropic and anisotropic models. We
apply our limit theorems and those of Ginovian (99) to obtain the asymptotic
behavior of the empirical covariances of Gaussian fields, which is a particular
example of quadratic forms. We show that it is possible to obtain a Gaussian
limit when the spectral density is not in $L^2$.
The paper obtains the general form of the cross-covariance function of vector
fractional Brownian motion with correlated components having different
self-similarity indices.