Gareth W. Peters

  1. Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo Forward Simulation for Statistical Analysis in Epidemic Modelling of Human Papillomavirus.

    Authors: Julien Cornebise, Gareth W. Peters, Igor A. Korostil, David G. Regan
    Subjects: Applications
    Abstract

    We develop a Bayesian statistical model and estimation methodology based on
    Forward Projection Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo in order to perform the
    calibration of a high-dimensional non-linear system of Ordinary Differential
    Equations representing an epidemic model for Human Papillomavirus types 6 and
    11 (HPV-6, HPV-11). The model is compartmental and involves stratification by
    age, gender and sexual activity-group.

  2. Semi-Blind System Identification in Wireless Relay Networks via Gaussian Process Iterated Conditioning on the Modes Estimation.

    Authors: Jinhong Yuan, Gareth W. Peters, Ido Nevat, Ian Collings
    Subjects: Information Theory
    Abstract

    This paper presents a flexible stochastic model developed for a class of
    cooperative wireless relay networks, in which the relay processing
    functionality is not known at the destination. The challenge is then to perform
    online system identification in this wireless relay network. To address this
    challenging problem we develop a novel class of statistical models and a
    computationally efficient algorithm that can be performed in real time
    processing, to undertake system identification for each relay channel in the
    presence of partial Channel State Information (CSI).

  3. Cooperative Spectrum Sensing with Partial CSI.

    Authors: Jinhong Yuan, Gareth W. Peters, Ido Nevat, Iain Collings
    Subjects: Information Theory
    Abstract

    Spectrum sensing is mandatory in Cognitive Radio systems, and is used in
    order to identify spectrum opportunities, and to guarantee that it does not
    cause unacceptable interference to the license owner. Since a single sensor may
    be in fading or shadowing, cooperative sensing among multiple sensors which
    experience uncorrelated fading is required to guarantee reliable sensing
    performance. In this paper we develop efficient centralized statistical
    algorithms for cooperative spectrum sensing in a cooperative based cognitive
    radio network.

  4. Parameter Estimation for Hidden Markov Models with Intractable Likelihoods.

    Authors: Sumeetpal S. Singh, Gareth W. Peters, Ajay Jasra, Thomas A. Dean
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for
    approximating likelihoods and is often used in parameter estimation when the
    likelihood functions are analytically intractable. Although the use of ABC is
    widespread in many fields, there has been little investigation of the
    theoretical properties of the resulting estimators. In this paper we give a
    theoretical analysis of the asymptotic properties of ABC based maximum
    likelihood parameter estimation for hidden Markov models.

  5. Analytic Loss Distributional Approach Model for Operational Risk from the alpha-Stable Doubly Stochastic Compound Processes and Implications for Capital Allocation.

    Authors: Gareth W. Peters, Pavel Shevchenko, Mark Young, Wendy Yip
    Subjects: Risk Management
    Abstract

    Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced
    measurement approach is not prescriptive regarding the class of statistical
    model utilised to undertake capital estimation. It has however become well
    accepted to utlise a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA) paradigm to model the
    individual OpRisk loss process corresponding to the Basel II Business
    line/event type. In this paper we derive a novel class of doubly stochastic
    alpha-stable family LDA models.

  6. Discussion of "Riemann manifold Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods'' by M. Girolami and B. Calderhead.

    Authors: Julien Cornebise, Gareth W. Peters, Luke Bornn
    Subjects: Computation
    Abstract

    This technical report is the union of two contributions to the discussion of
    the Read Paper "Riemann manifold Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods"
    by B. Calderhead and M. Girolami, presented in front of the Royal Statistical
    Society on October 13th 2010 and to appear in the Journal of the Royal
    Statistical Society Series B. The first comment establishes a parallel and
    possible interactions with Adaptive Monte Carlo methods.

  7. Impact of Insurance for Operational Risk: Is it worthwhile to insure or be insured for severe losses?.

    Authors: Gareth W. Peters, Pavel V. Shevchenko, Aaron D. Byrnes
    Subjects: Risk Management
    Abstract

    Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced
    measurement approach allows a provision for reduction of capital as a result of
    insurance mitigation of up to 20%. This paper studies the behaviour of
    different insurance policies in the context of capital reduction for a range of
    possible extreme loss models and insurance policy scenarios in a multi-period,
    multiple risk settings.

  8. Bayesian Cointegrated Vector Autoregression models incorporating Alpha-stable noise for inter-day price movements via Approximate Bayesian Computation.

    Authors: Gareth W. Peters, Balakrishnan B. Kannan, Ben Lasscock, Chris Mellen, Simon Godsill
    Subjects: Statistical Finance
    Abstract

    We consider a statistical model for pairs of traded assets, based on a
    Cointegrated Vector Auto Regression (CVAR) Model. We extend standard CVAR
    models to incorporate estimation of model parameters in the presence of price
    series level shifts which are not accurately modeled in the standard Gaussian
    error correction model (ECM) framework. This involves developing a novel matrix
    variate Bayesian CVAR mixture model comprised of Gaussian errors intra-day and
    Alpha-stable errors inter-day in the ECM framework.

  9. Channel Tracking for Relay Networks via Adaptive Particle MCMC.

    Authors: Arnaud Doucet, Jinhong Yuan, Gareth W. Peters, Ido Nevat
    Subjects: Information Theory
    Abstract

    This paper presents a new approach for channel tracking and parameter
    estimation in cooperative wireless relay networks. We consider a system with
    multiple relay nodes operating under an amplify and forward relay function. We
    develop a novel algorithm to efficiently solve the challenging problem of joint
    channel tracking and parameters estimation of the Jakes' system model within a
    mobile wireless relay network. This is based on a novel particle Markov chain
    Monte Carlo (PMCMC) method.

  10. Blind Spectrum Sensing in Cognitive Radio over Fading Channels and Frequency Offsets.

    Authors: Jinhong Yuan, Gareth W. Peters, Ido Nevat
    Subjects: Information Theory
    Abstract

    This paper deals with the challenging problem of spectrum sensing in
    cognitive radio. We consider a stochastic system model where the the Primary
    User (PU) transmits a periodic signal over fading channels. The effect of
    frequency offsets due to oscillator mismatch, and Doppler offset is studied. We
    show that for this case the Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) cannot be evaluated
    poitnwise. We present a novel approach to approximate the marginilisation of
    the frequency offset using a single point estimate.

  11. Ecological non-linear state space model selection via adaptive particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (AdPMCMC).

    Authors: Gareth W. Peters, Geoff R. Hosack, Keith R. Hayes
    Subjects: Methodology
    Abstract

    We develop a novel advanced Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that
    is capable of sampling from the posterior distribution of non-linear state
    space models for both the unobserved latent states and the unknown model
    parameters. We apply this novel methodology to five population growth models,
    including models with strong and weak Allee effects, and test if it can
    efficiently sample from the complex likelihood surface that is often associated
    with these models.

  12. Chain ladder method: Bayesian bootstrap versus classical bootstrap.

    Authors: Gareth W. Peters, Pavel V. Shevchenko, Mario V. Wüthrich
    Subjects: Computational Finance
    Abstract

    The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain
    ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology.
    We demonstrate how to estimate quantities of interest in claims reserving and
    compare the estimates to those obtained from classical and credibility
    approaches. In this context, a novel numerical procedure utilising Markov chain
    Monte Carlo (MCMC), ABC and a Bayesian bootstrap procedure was developed in a
    truly distribution-free setting.

  13. Comments on "Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo" by C. Andrieu, A. Doucet and R. Hollenstein.

    Authors: Julien Cornebise, Gareth W. Peters
    Subjects: Methodology
    Abstract

    We merge in this note our two discussions about the Read Paper "Particle
    Markov chain Monte Carlo" (Andrieu, Doucet, and Holenstein, 2010) presented on
    October 16th 2009 at the Royal Statistical Society, appearing in the Journal of
    the Royal Statistical Society Series B. We also present a more detailed version
    of the ABC extension.

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