We develop a Bayesian statistical model and estimation methodology based on
Forward Projection Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo in order to perform the
calibration of a high-dimensional non-linear system of Ordinary Differential
Equations representing an epidemic model for Human Papillomavirus types 6 and
11 (HPV-6, HPV-11). The model is compartmental and involves stratification by
age, gender and sexual activity-group.
This paper presents a flexible stochastic model developed for a class of
cooperative wireless relay networks, in which the relay processing
functionality is not known at the destination. The challenge is then to perform
online system identification in this wireless relay network. To address this
challenging problem we develop a novel class of statistical models and a
computationally efficient algorithm that can be performed in real time
processing, to undertake system identification for each relay channel in the
presence of partial Channel State Information (CSI).
Spectrum sensing is mandatory in Cognitive Radio systems, and is used in
order to identify spectrum opportunities, and to guarantee that it does not
cause unacceptable interference to the license owner. Since a single sensor may
be in fading or shadowing, cooperative sensing among multiple sensors which
experience uncorrelated fading is required to guarantee reliable sensing
performance. In this paper we develop efficient centralized statistical
algorithms for cooperative spectrum sensing in a cooperative based cognitive
radio network.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for
approximating likelihoods and is often used in parameter estimation when the
likelihood functions are analytically intractable. Although the use of ABC is
widespread in many fields, there has been little investigation of the
theoretical properties of the resulting estimators. In this paper we give a
theoretical analysis of the asymptotic properties of ABC based maximum
likelihood parameter estimation for hidden Markov models.
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced
measurement approach is not prescriptive regarding the class of statistical
model utilised to undertake capital estimation. It has however become well
accepted to utlise a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA) paradigm to model the
individual OpRisk loss process corresponding to the Basel II Business
line/event type. In this paper we derive a novel class of doubly stochastic
alpha-stable family LDA models.
This technical report is the union of two contributions to the discussion of
the Read Paper "Riemann manifold Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods"
by B. Calderhead and M. Girolami, presented in front of the Royal Statistical
Society on October 13th 2010 and to appear in the Journal of the Royal
Statistical Society Series B. The first comment establishes a parallel and
possible interactions with Adaptive Monte Carlo methods.
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced
measurement approach allows a provision for reduction of capital as a result of
insurance mitigation of up to 20%. This paper studies the behaviour of
different insurance policies in the context of capital reduction for a range of
possible extreme loss models and insurance policy scenarios in a multi-period,
multiple risk settings.
We consider a statistical model for pairs of traded assets, based on a
Cointegrated Vector Auto Regression (CVAR) Model. We extend standard CVAR
models to incorporate estimation of model parameters in the presence of price
series level shifts which are not accurately modeled in the standard Gaussian
error correction model (ECM) framework. This involves developing a novel matrix
variate Bayesian CVAR mixture model comprised of Gaussian errors intra-day and
Alpha-stable errors inter-day in the ECM framework.
This paper presents a new approach for channel tracking and parameter
estimation in cooperative wireless relay networks. We consider a system with
multiple relay nodes operating under an amplify and forward relay function. We
develop a novel algorithm to efficiently solve the challenging problem of joint
channel tracking and parameters estimation of the Jakes' system model within a
mobile wireless relay network. This is based on a novel particle Markov chain
Monte Carlo (PMCMC) method.
This paper deals with the challenging problem of spectrum sensing in
cognitive radio. We consider a stochastic system model where the the Primary
User (PU) transmits a periodic signal over fading channels. The effect of
frequency offsets due to oscillator mismatch, and Doppler offset is studied. We
show that for this case the Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) cannot be evaluated
poitnwise. We present a novel approach to approximate the marginilisation of
the frequency offset using a single point estimate.
We develop a novel advanced Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that
is capable of sampling from the posterior distribution of non-linear state
space models for both the unobserved latent states and the unknown model
parameters. We apply this novel methodology to five population growth models,
including models with strong and weak Allee effects, and test if it can
efficiently sample from the complex likelihood surface that is often associated
with these models.
The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain
ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology.
We demonstrate how to estimate quantities of interest in claims reserving and
compare the estimates to those obtained from classical and credibility
approaches. In this context, a novel numerical procedure utilising Markov chain
Monte Carlo (MCMC), ABC and a Bayesian bootstrap procedure was developed in a
truly distribution-free setting.
We merge in this note our two discussions about the Read Paper "Particle
Markov chain Monte Carlo" (Andrieu, Doucet, and Holenstein, 2010) presented on
October 16th 2009 at the Royal Statistical Society, appearing in the Journal of
the Royal Statistical Society Series B. We also present a more detailed version
of the ABC extension.