Sophie Lamarche

  1. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of the electricity load.

    Authors: Anne Philippe, Tristan Launay, Sophie Lamarche
    Subjects: Applications
    Abstract

    In this paper, we study a non-linear model used to estimate and forecast the
    electricity load, that usually requires four or more years worth of data to
    avoid any overfitting phenomenon. We first propose a non-informative prior to
    be used when the number of observations is large enough. When the observations
    are too few, we propose a hierarchical prior to include information coming from
    another bigger, similar, sample. The posterior densities associated with these
    two priors are derived and a MCMC algorithm is provided in each case.

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