Olivier Wintenberger

  1. Fast rates in learning with dependent observations.

    Authors: Olivier Wintenberger, Pierre Alquier
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    In this paper we tackle the problem of fast rates in time series forecasting
    from a statistical learning perspective. In a serie of papers (e.g. Meir 2000,
    Modha and Masry 1998, Alquier and Wintenberger 2012) it is shown that the main
    tools used in learning theory with iid observations can be extended to the
    prediction of time series. The main message of these papers is that, given a
    family of predictors, we are able to build a new predictor that predicts the
    series as well as the best predictor in the family, up to a remainder of order
    $1/\sqrt{n}$.

  2. Parametric inference and forecasting in continuously invertible volatility models.

    Authors: Olivier Wintenberger, Sixiang Cai
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    We introduce the notion of continuously invertible volatility models that
    relies on some Lyapunov condition and some regularity condition. We show that
    it is almost equivalent to the ability of the volatilities forecasting using
    the parametric inference approach based on the SRE given in [16]. Under very
    weak assumptions, we prove the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality
    of the parametric inference. Based on this parametric estimation, a natural
    strongly consistent forecast of the volatility is given.

  3. Model selection for weakly dependent time series forecasting.

    Authors: Olivier Wintenberger, Pierre Alquier
    Subjects: Methodology
    Abstract

    Observing a stationary time series, we propose a two-step procedure for the
    prediction of the next value of the time series. The first step follows machine
    learning theory paradigm and consists in determining a set of possible
    predictors as randomized estimators in (possibly numerous) different predictive
    models. The second step follows the model selection paradigm and consists in
    choosing one predictor with good properties among all the predictors of the
    first steps.

  4. Detecting multiple change-points in general causal time series using penalized quasi-likelihood.

    Authors: Olivier Wintenberger, Jean-Marc Bardet, William Chakry Kengne
    Subjects: Statistics
    Abstract

    This paper is devoted to the off-line multiple change-point detection in a
    semiparametric framework. The time series is supposed to belong to a large
    class of models including AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$),...
    models where the coefficients change at each instant of breaks. The different
    unknown parameters (number of changes, change dates and parameters of
    successive models) are estimated using a penalized contrast built on
    conditional quasi-likelihood.

  5. Infinite variance stable limits for sums of dependent random variables.

    Authors: Katarzyna Bartkiewicz, Adam Jakubowski, Thomas Mikosch, Olivier Wintenberger
    Subjects: Probability
    Abstract

    The aim of this paper is to provide conditions which ensure that the affinely
    transformed partial sums of a strictly stationary process converge in
    distribution to an in?nite variance stable distribution. Conditions for this
    convergence to hold are known in the literature. However, most of these results
    are qualitative in the sense that the parameters of the limit distribution are
    expressed in terms of some limiting point process.

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