We develop a model for the dynamic evolution of default-free and defaultable
interest rates in a LIBOR framework. Utilizing the class of affine processes,
this model produces positive LIBOR rates and spreads, while the dynamics are
analytically tractable under defaultable forward measures. This leads to
explicit formulas for CDS spreads, while semi-analytical formulas are derived
for other credit derivatives. Finally, we give an application to counterparty
risk.
Withdrawal guarantees ensure the periodical deduction of a constant
dollar-amount from a fund investment for a fixed number of periods. If the fund
depletes before the last withdrawal, the guarantor has to finance the
outstanding withdrawals. We derive an explicit semi-static hedging strategy
which leads to closed form solutions for the guarantee value.
Explicit robust hedging strategies for convex or concave payoffs under a
continuous semimartingale model with uncertainty and small transaction costs
are constructed. In an asymptotic sense, the upper and lower bounds of the
cumulative volatility enable us to super-hedge convex and concave payoffs
respectively. The idea is a combination of Mykland's conservative delta hedging
and Leland's enlarging volatility. We use a specific sequence of stopping times
as rebalancing dates, which can be superior to equidistant one even when there
is no model uncertainty.
We study the problem of finding probability densities that match given
European call option prices. To allow prior information about such a density to
be taken into account, we generalise the algorithm presented in Neri and
Schneider (2011) to find the maximum entropy density of an asset price to the
relative entropy case. This is applied to study the impact the choice of prior
density has in two market scenarios.
The credit crisis of 2007 and 2008 has thrown much focus on the models used
to price mortgage backed securities. Many institutions have relied heavily on
the credit ratings provided by credit agency. The relationships between
management of credit agencies and debt issuers may have resulted in conflict of
interest when pricing these securities which has lead to incorrect risk
assumptions and value expectations from institutional buyers. Despite the
existence of sophisticated models, institutional buyers have relied on these
ratings when considering the risks involved with these products.
Multi-currency FX derivatives o?er a challenging playground to the
mathematical modelling of correlations. Quotes of liquidly traded vanilla
options on cross FX rates, e.g. EUR/JPY, can be used to extract a great deal of
information about the complex implied correlation structure between the
corresponding main FX rates, e.g. USD/JPY and EUR/USD. Including all this
information in a ?nancial model means being able to fit simultaneously all
volatility smiles, a very demanding task. In this paper we propose a first
solution to this problem in the class of stochastic volatility models.
The SABR model is a stochastic volatility model not admitting a closed form
solution. Hagan, Kumar, Leniewski and Woodward have given an approximate
solution by means of perturbative techniques. A more precise approximation was
obtained by Henry-Labord\`ere using the heat kernel expansion method. The
latter relies on deep and hard theorems from Riemannian geometry which are
almost totally unknown to people working in finance, who however are those
primarily interested in these results.
CDS options allow investors to express a view on spread volatility and obtain
a wider range of payoffs than are possible with vanilla CDS. We give a detailed
exposition of different types of single-name CDS option, including options with
upfront protection payment, recovery options and recovery swaps, and also
presents a new formula for the index option. The emphasis is on using the
Black-76 formula where possible and ensuring consistency within asset classes.
In the framework shown here the `armageddon event' does not require special
attention.
This work focuses on the indifference pricing of American call option
underlying a non-traded stock, which may be partially hedgeable by another
traded stock. Under the exponential forward measure, the indifference price is
formulated as a stochastic singular control problem. The value function is
characterized as the unique solution of a partial differential equation in a
Sobolev space. Together with some regularities and estimates of the value
function, the existence of the optimal strategy is also obtained.
We develop a finite horizon continuous time market model, where risk averse
investors maximize utility from terminal wealth by dynamically investing in a
risk-free money market account, a stock written on a default-free dividend
process, and a defaultable bond, whose prices are determined via equilibrium.
We analyze financial contagion arising endogenously between the stock and the
defaultable bond via the interplay between equilibrium behavior of investors,
risk preferences and cyclicality properties of the default intensity.
The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First is to extend the notions of an
n-dimensional semimartingale and its stochastic integral to a piecewise
semimartingale of stochastic dimension. The properties of the former carry over
largely intact to the latter, avoiding some of the pitfalls of
infinite-dimensional stochastic integration.
We model the term structure of the forward default intensity and the default
density by using L\'evy random fields, which allow us to consider the credit
derivatives with an after-default recovery payment. As applications, we study
the pricing of a defaultable bond and represent the pricing kernel as the
unique solution of a parabolic integro-differential equation. Finally, we
illustrate by numerical examples the impact of the contagious jump risks on the
defaultable bond price in our model.
In this paper we describe how to include funding and margining costs into a
risk-neutral pricing framework for counterparty credit risk. We consider
realistic settings and we include in our models the common market practices
suggested by the ISDA documentation without assuming restrictive constraints on
margining procedures and close-out netting rules. In particular, we allow for
asymmetric collateral and funding rates, and exogenous liquidity policies and
hedging strategies. Re-hypothecation liquidity risk and close-out amount
evaluation issues are also covered.
First, we show that implied normal volatility is intimately linked with the
incomplete Gamma function. Then, we deduce an expansion on implied normal
volatility in terms of the time-value of a European call option. Then, we
formulate an equivalence between the implied normal volatility and the
lognormal implied volatility with any strike and any model. This generalizes a
known result for the SABR model. Finally, we adress the issue of the "breakeven
move" of a delta-hedged portfolio.
In the forthcoming ISDA Standard Credit Support Annex (SCSA), the trades
denominated in non-G5 currencies as well as those include multiple currencies
are expected to be allocated to the USD silo, where the contracts are
collateralized by USD cash, or a different currency with an appropriate
interest rate overlay to achieve the same economic effects. In this paper, we
have presented a simple generic valuation framework for the clean price under
the USD silo with the the detailed procedures for the initial term structure
construction.
We study dynamic pricing mechanisms of European contingent claims under
uncertainty by using G framework introduced by Peng (2005). We consider a
financial market consists of a riskless asset and a risky stock with price
process modelled by a geometric generalized G-Brownian motion, which features
the drift uncertainty and volatility uncertainty of the stock price process. A
time consistent G-expectation is defined by the viscosity solution of the
G-heat equation. Using the time consistent G-expectation we define the G
dynamic pricing mechanism for the claim.
This paper considers exponential utility indifference pricing for a
multidimensional non-traded assets model and provides two approximations for
the utility indifference price: a linear approximation by Picard iteration and
a semigroup approximation by splitting techniques. The key tool is the
probabilistic representation for the utility indifference price by the solution
of fully coupled linear forward-backward stochastic differential equations. We
apply our methodology to study the counterparty risk of derivatives in
incomplete markets.
In this paper we consider a new mathematical extension of the Black-Scholes
model in which the stochastic time and stock share price evolution is described
by two independent random processes. The parent process is Brownian, and the
directing process is inverse to the totally skewed, strictly \alpha-stable
process. The subordinated process represents the Brownian motion indexed by an
independent, continuous and increasing process. This allows us to introduce the
long-term memory effects in the classical Black-Scholes model.
In the present paper we show that the Binomial-tree approach for pricing,
hedging, and risk assessment of Convertible bonds in the framework of the
Tsiveriotis-Fernandes model has serious drawbacks. Key words: Convertible
bonds, Binomial tree, Tsiveriotis-Fernandes model, Convertible bond pricing,
Convertible bond Greeks, Convertible Arbitrage, Delta-hedging of Convertible
bonds, Risk Assessment of Convertible bonds.
The theory of L\'evy models for asset pricing simplifies considerably if one
takes a pricing kernel approach, which enables one to bypass market
incompleteness issues. The special case of a geometric L\'evy model (GLM) with
constant parameters can be regarded as a natural generalisation of the standard
geometric Brownian motion model used in the Black-Scholes theory. In one
dimension, once the underlying L\'evy process has been specified, the GLM is
characterised by four parameters: the initial asset price, the interest rate,
the volatility, and a risk aversion factor.
We present a dialogue on Counterparty Credit Risk touching on Credit Value at
Risk (Credit VaR), Potential Future Exposure (PFE), Expected Exposure (EE),
Expected Positive Exposure (EPE), Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA), Debit
Valuation Adjustment (DVA), DVA Hedging, Closeout conventions, Netting clauses,
Collateral modeling, Gap Risk, Re-hypothecation, Wrong Way Risk, Basel III,
inclusion of Funding costs, First to Default risk, Contingent Credit Default
Swaps (CCDS) and CVA restructuring possibilities through margin lending.
Numerous empirical proofs indicate the adequacy of the time discrete
auto-regressive stochastic volatility models introduced by Taylor in the
description of the log-returns of financial assets.
We extend the now classic structural credit modeling approach of Black and
Cox to a class of "two-factor" models that unify equity securities such as
options written on the stock price, and credit products like bonds and credit
default swaps. In our approach, the two sides of the stylized balance sheet of
a firm, namely the asset value and debt value, are assumed to follow a two
dimensional Markov process.
In this paper we present a new multi-asset pricing model, which is built upon
newly developed families of solvable multi-parameter single-asset diffusions
with a nonlinear smile-shaped volatility and an affine drift. Our multi-asset
pricing model arises by employing copula methods. In particular, all discounted
single-asset price processes are modeled as martingale diffusions under a
risk-neutral measure.
We develop a single-period model for a large economic agent who trades with
market makers at their utility indifference prices. A key role is played by a
pair of conjugate saddle functions associated with the description of Pareto
optimal allocations in terms of the utility function of a representative market
maker.
We develop a continuous-time model for a large investor trading at market
indifference prices. In analogy to the construction of stochastic integrals, we
investigate the transition from simple to general predictable strategies. A key
role is played by a stochastic differential equation for the market makers'
utility process. The analysis of this equation relies on conjugacy relations
between the stochastic processes with values in the spaces of saddle functions
associated with the representative agent's utility.
We provide sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of
solutions to a stochastic differential equation which arises in a price impact
model. These conditions are stated as smoothness and boundedness requirements
on utility functions or Malliavin differentiability of payoffs and endowments.
We present a novel methodology to determine the fundamental value of firms in
the social-networking sector, motivated by recent realized IPOs and by reports
that suggest sky-high valuations of firms such as facebook, Groupon, LinkedIn
Corp., Pandora Media Inc, Twitter, Zynga.
This paper studies the optimal timing to liquidate defaultable securities in
a general intensity-based credit risk model under stochastic interest rate. We
incorporate the potential price discrepancy between the market and investors,
which is characterized by risk-neutral valuation under different default risk
premia specifications. To quantify the value of optimally timing to sell, we
introduce the {delayed liquidation premium} which is closely related to the
stochastic bracket between the market price and a pricing kernel.
We derive a closed-form solution for the price of an average price as well as
an average strike geometric Asian option, by making use of the path integral
formulation. Our results are compared to a numerical Monte Carlo simulation. We
also develop a pricing formula for an Asian option with a barrier on a control
process, combining the method of images with a partitioning of the set of paths
according to the average along the path. This formula is exact when the
correlation is zero, and is approximate when the correlation increases.
In a Markovian stochastic volatility model, we consider financial agents
whose investment criteria are modelled by forward exponential performance
processes. The problem of contingent claim indifference valuation is first
addressed and a number of properties are proved and discussed. Special
attention is taken on the comparison between the forward and backward
indifference valuation. In addition, we initiate the problem of optimal risk
sharing on this forward setting and we solve it when the agents' forward
performance criteria are exponential.
Recent theoretical results establish that time-consistent valuations (i.e.
pricing operators) can be created by backward iteration of one-period
valuations. In this paper we investigate the continuous-time limits of
well-known actuarial premium principles when such backward iteration procedures
are applied. We show that the one-period variance premiumprinciple converges to
the non-linear exponential indifference valuation.
We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as
encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance
companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically
involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance.
We propose to extend standard actuarial principles by a new market-consistent
evaluation procedure which we call `two step market evaluation.' This procedure
preserves the structure of standard evaluation techniques and has many other
appealing properties.
Variable annuities (VA) are popular insurance products. VAs provides the
insured with a guaranteed accumulation rate on their premium at maturity. In
addition, the insured may receive extra benefit if returns of underlying funds
are high enough. Here we consider a special case of VA with high-water mark
feature and Guaranteed Minimum payment reset.
Consider an American option that pays G(X^*_t) when exercised at time t,
where G is a positive increasing function, X^*_t := \sup_{s\le t}X_s, and X_s
is the price of the underlying security at time s. Assuming zero interest
rates, we show that the seller of this option can hedge his position by trading
in the underlying security if he begins with initial capital
X_0\int_{X_0}^{\infty}G(x)x^{-2}dx (and this is the smallest initial capital
that allows him to hedge his position).
Let $\sigma_t(x)$ denote the implied volatility at maturity $t$ for a strike
$K=S_0 e^{xt}$, where $x\in\bbR$ and $S_0$ is the current value of the
underlying. We show that $\sigma_t(x)$ has a uniform (in $x$) limit as maturity
$t$ tends to infinity, given by the formula
$\sigma_\infty(x)=\sqrt{2}(h^*(x)^{1/2}+(h^*(x)-x)^{1/2})$, for $x$ in some
compact neighbourhood of zero in the class of affine stochastic volatility
models. The function $h^*$ is the convex dual of the limiting cumulant
generating function $h$ of the scaled log-spot process.
The pricing and hedging of a general class of options (including American,
Bermudan and European options) on multiple assets are studied in the context of
currency markets where trading in all assets is subject to proportional
transaction costs, and where the existence of a riskfree numeraire is not
assumed. Probabilistic dual representations are obtained for the bid and ask
prices of such options, together with constructions of hedging strategies,
optimal stopping times and approximate martingale representations for both long
and short option positions.
We study convex risk measures describing the upper and lower bounds of a good
deal bound, which is a subinterval of a no-arbitrage pricing bound. We call
such a convex risk measure a good deal valuation and give a set of equivalent
conditions for its existence in terms of market. A good deal valuation is
characterized by several equivalent properties and in particular, we see that a
convex risk measure is a good deal valuation only if it is given as a risk
indifference price. An application to shortfall risk measure is given.
This paper studies pricing of stock options for the case when the evolution
of the risk-free assets or bond is stochastic. We show that, in the typical
scenario, the martingale measure is not unique, that there are non-replicable
claims, and that the martingale prices can vary significantly; for instance,
for a European put option, any positive real number is a martingale price for
some martingale measure. In addition, the second moment of the hedging error
for a strategy calculated via a given martingale measure can take any arbitrary
positive value under some equivalent measure.
We study the explicit calculation of the set of superhedging portfolios of
contingent claims in a discrete-time market model for d assets with
proportional transaction costs when the underlying probability space is finite.
The set of superhedging portfolios can be obtained by a recursive construction
involving set operations, going backward in the event tree. We reformulate the
problem as a sequence of linear vector optimization problems and solve it by
adapting known algorithms. The corresponding superhedging strategy can be
obtained going forward in the tree.
This note studies an issue relating to essential smoothness that can arise
when the theory of large deviations is applied to a certain option pricing
formula in the Heston model. The note identifies a gap, based on this issue, in
the proof of Corollary 2.4 in \cite{FordeJacquier10} and describes how to
circumvent it. This completes the proof of Corollary 2.4 in
\cite{FordeJacquier10} and hence of the main result in \cite{FordeJacquier10},
which describes the limiting behaviour of the implied volatility smile in the
Heston model far from maturity.
We derive the explicit formula for the joint Laplace transform of the Wishart
process and its time integral which extends the original approach of Bru. We
compare our methodology with the alternative results given by the variation of
constants method, the linearization of the Matrix Riccati ODE's and the
Runge-Kutta algorithm. The new formula turns out to be fast, accurate and very
useful for applications when dealing with stochastic volatility and stochastic
correlation modelling.
In financial markets valuable information is rarely circulated homogeneously,
because of time required for information to spread. However, advances in
communication technology means that the 'lifetime' of an important piece of
information is typically short. Hence, viewed as a tradable asset, information
shares the characteristics of a nondurable commodity: while it can be stored
and transmitted freely, its worth diminishes rapidly in time.
In this paper we calibrate chaotic models for interest rates to market data
using a polynomial-exponential parametrization for the chaos coefficients. We
identify a subclass of one-variable models that allow us to introduce
complexity from higher order chaos in a controlled way while retaining
considerable analytic tractability. In particular we derive explicit
expressions for bond and option prices in a one-variable third chaos model in
terms of elementary combinations of normal density and cumulative distribution
functions.
In this work, we have presented a simple analytical approximation scheme for
generic non-linear FBSDEs. By treating the interested systems as the linear
decoupled FBSDE perturbed with a non-linear generator, we have shown that it is
possible to carry out recursive approximation to an arbitrarily higher order of
expansion. We have also provided two concrete examples to demonstrate how it
works and shown its accuracy relative to the results directly obtained from
numerical techniques, such as PDE and Monte Carlo simulation.
We correct a mistake in the published version of our paper. Our new
conclusion is that the "implied leverage effect" for single stocks is
underestimated by option markets for short maturities and overestimated for
long maturities, while it is always overestimated for OEX options, except for
the shortest maturities where the revised theory and data match perfectly.
We derive a small-time expansion for out-of-the-money call options under an
exponential Levy model, using the small-time expansion for the distribution
function given in Figueroa-Lopez & Houdre (2009), combined with a change of
numeraire via the Esscher transform. In particular, we find that the effect of
a non-zero volatility $\sigma$ of the Gaussian component of the driving
L\'{e}vy process is to increase the call price by $1/2\sigma^2 t^2
e^{k}\nu(k)(1+o(1))$ as $t \to 0$, where $\nu$ is the L\'evy density.
A robust implementation of a Dupire type local volatility model is an
important issue for every option trading floor. Typically, this (inverse)
problem is solved in a two step procedure : (i) a smooth parametrization of the
implied volatility surface; (ii) computation of the local volatility based on
the resulting call price surface. Point (i), and in particular how to
extrapolate the implied volatility in extreme strike regimes not seen in the
market, has been the subject of numerous articles, starting with Lee (Math.
Finance, 2004).
This paper studies the valuation of game-type credit default swaps (CDSs)
that allow the protection buyer and seller to raise or reduce the respective
position once prior to default. This leads to the analytical and numerical
studies of a stochastic game with optimal stopping subject to early termination
resulting from a default. Under a structural credit risk model based on
spectrally negative Levy processes, we analyze the existence of the Nash
equilibrium and derive the associated saddle point.
In the context of stochastic volatility models, we study representation
formulas in terms of expectations for the power series' coefficients associated
to the call price-function. As in a recent paper by Antonelli and Scarlatti the
expansion is done w.r.t. the correlation between the noises driving the
underlying asset price process and the volatility process. We first obtain
expressions for the power series' coefficients from the generalized Hull and
White formula obtained by Elisa Al\`os.
This paper is devoted to pricing American options using Monte Carlo and the
Malliavin calculus. Unlike the majority of articles related to this topic, in
this work we will not use localization fonctions to reduce the variance. Our
method is based on expressing the conditional expectation E[f(St)/Ss] using the
Malliavin calculus without localization. Then the variance of the estimator of
E[f(St)/Ss] is reduced using closed formulas, techniques based on a
conditioning and a judicious choice of the number of simulated paths.
On a multi-assets Black-Scholes economy, we introduce a class of barrier
options. In this model we apply a generalized reflection principle in a context
of the finite reflection group acting on a Euclidean space to give a valuation
formula and the semi-static hedge.
Recent work of Dupire (2005) and Carr & Lee (2010) has highlighted the
importance of understanding the Skorokhod embedding originally proposed by Root
(1969) for the model-independent hedging of variance options. Root's work shows
that there exists a barrier from which one may define a stopping time which
solves the Skorokhod embedding problem. This construction has the remarkable
property, proved by Rost (1976), that it minimises the variance of the stopping
time among all solutions.
In this paper, we have studied the pricing of a continuously collateralized
CDS. We have made use of the "survival measure" to derive the pricing formula
in a straightforward way. As a result, we have found that there exists
irremovable trace of the counter party as well as the investor in the price of
CDS through their default dependence even under the perfect collateralization,
although the hazard rates of the two parties are totally absent from the
pricing formula.
In this paper we analyse financial implications of exchangeability and
similar properties of finite dimensional random vectors. We show how these
properties are reflected in prices of some basket options in view of the
well-known put-call symmetry property and the duality principle in option
pricing. A particular attention is devoted to the case of asset prices driven
by Levy processes.
Macroscopic price evolution models are commonly used for investment
strategies. There are first promising achievements in defining microscopic
agent based models for the same purpose. Microscopic models allow a deeper
understanding of mechanisms in the market than the purely phenomenological
macroscopic models, and thus bear the chance for better models for market
regulation. We exemplify this strategy in a case study, deducing a macroscopic
Langevin equation from a microscopic spin market model closely related to the
Ising model.
Modelling stock prices via jump processes is common in financial markets. In
practice, to hedge a contingent claim one typically uses the so-called
delta-hedging strategy. This strategy stems from the Black--Merton--Scholes
model where it perfectly replicates contingent claims. From the theoretical
viewpoint, there is no reason for this to hold in models with jumps. However in
practice the delta-hedging strategy is widely used and its potential
shortcoming in models with jumps is disregarded since such models are typically
incomplete and hence most contingent claims are non-attainable.
We consider a structural credit model for a large portfolio of credit risky
assets where the correlation is due to a market factor. By considering the
large portfolio limit of this system we show the existence of a density process
for the asset values. This density evolves according to a stochastic partial
differential equation and we establish existence and uniqueness for the
solution taking values in a suitable function space. The loss function of the
portfolio is then a function of the evolution of this density at the default
boundary.
We introduce a new approach for the numerical pricing of American options.
The main idea is to choose a finite number of suitable excessive functions
(randomly) and to find the smallest majorant of the gain function in the span
of these functions. The resulting problem is a linear semi-infinite programming
problem, that can be solved using standard algorithms. This leads to good upper
bounds for the original problem. For our algorithms no discretization of space
and time and no simulation is necessary. Furthermore it is applicable even for
high-dimensional problems.
We present a quantitative study of the markets and models evolution across
the credit crunch crisis. In particular, we focus on the fixed income market
and we analyze the most relevant empirical evidences regarding the divergences
between Libor and OIS rates, the explosion of Basis Swaps spreads, and the
diffusion of collateral agreements and CSA-discounting, in terms of credit and
liquidity effects.
We present an explicit hedging strategy, which enables to prove arbitrageness
of market incorporating at least two assets depending on the same random
factor. The implied Black-Scholes volatility, computed taking into account the
form of the graph of the option price, related to our strategy, demonstrates
the "skewness" inherent to the observational data.
When the underlying stock price is a strict local martingale process under an
equivalent local martingale measure, Black-Scholes PDE associated with an
European option may have multiple solutions. In this paper, we study an
approximation for the smallest hedging price of such an European option. Our
results show that a class of rebate barrier options can be used for this
approximation, when its rebate and barrier are chosen appropriately. An
asymptotic convergence rate is also achieved when the knocked-out barrier moves
to infinity under suitable conditions.
The importance of collateralization through the change of funding cost is now
well recognized among practitioners. In this article, we have extended the
previous studies of collateralized derivative pricing to more generic
situation, that is asymmetric and imperfect collateralization as well as the
associated CVA. We have presented approximate expressions for various cases
using Gateaux derivative which allow straightforward numerical analysis.
Numerical examples for CCS (cross currency swap) and IRS(interest rate swap)
with asymmetric collateralization were also provided.
In this paper, a time substitution as used by Duru and Kleinert in their
treatment of the hydrogen atom with path integrals is performed to price timer
options under stochastic volatility models. We present general pricing formulas
for both the perpetual timer call options and the finite time-horizon timer
call options. These general results allow us to find closed-form pricing
formulas for both the perpetual and the finite time-horizon timer options under
the 3/2 stochastic volatility model as well as under the Heston stochastic
volatility model.
The coupled nonlinear volatility and option pricing model presented recently
by Ivancevic is investigated, which generates a leverage effect, i.e., stock
volatility is (negatively) correlated to stock returns, and can be regarded as
a coupled nonlinear wave alternative of the Black-Scholes option pricing model.
In this short report, we analytically propose the two-component financial rogue
waves of the coupled nonlinear volatility and option pricing model without an
embedded w-learning. Moreover, we exhibit their dynamical behaviors for chosen
different parameters.
Consider the optimal dividend problem for an insurance company whose
uncontrolled surplus precess evolves as a spectrally negative Levy process. We
assume that dividends are paid to the shareholders according to admissible
strategies whose dividend rate is bounded by a constant.
This paper investigates market-consistent valuation of insurance liabilities
in the context of, for instance, Solvency II and to some extent IFRS 4. We
propose an explicit and consistent framework for the valuation of insurance
liabilities which incorporates the Solvency II approach as a special case.
This article presents a proof of the existence of Bertrand-Nash equilibrium
prices with multi-product firms and under the Logit model of demand that does
not rely on restrictive assumptions on product characteristics, firm
homogeneity or symmetry, product costs, or linearity of the utility function.
The proof is based on conditions for the indirect utility function, fixed-point
equations derived from the first-order conditions, and a direct analysis of the
second-order conditions resulting in the uniqueness of profit-maximizing
prices.
This paper studies the valuation of a class of credit default swaps (CDSs)
with the embedded option to switch to a different premium and notional
principal anytime prior to a credit event. These are early exercisable
contracts that give the protection buyer or seller the right to step-up,
step-down, or cancel the CDS position. The pricing problem is formulated under
a structural credit risk model based on Levy processes. This leads to the
analytic and numerical studies of an optimal stopping problem subject to early
termination due to default.
Cumulant expansion is used to derive accurate closed-form approximation for
Monthly Sum Options in case of constant volatility model. Payoff of Monthly Sum
Option is based on sum of $N$ caped (and probably floored) returns. It is
noticed, that $1/\sqrt{N}$ can be used as a small parameter in Edgeworth
expansion. First two leading terms of this expansion are calculated here. It is
shown that the suggest closed-form approximation is in a good agreement with
numerical results for typical mode parameters.
We obtain the maximum entropy distribution for an asset from call and digital
option prices. A rigorous mathematical proof of its existence and exponential
form is given, which can also be applied to legitimise a formal derivation by
Buchen and Kelly. We give a simple and robust algorithm for our method and
compare our results to theirs. We present numerical results which show that our
approach implies very realistic volatility surfaces even when calibrating only
to at-the-money options. Finally, we apply our approach to options on the S&P
500 index.
In the "positive interest" models of Flesaker and Hughston, the nominal
discount bond system is determined by the specification of a one-parameter
family of positive martingales. In the present paper we extend this analysis to
include a variety of distributions for the martingale family, parameterised by
a function that determines the behaviour of the market risk premium. These
distributions include jump and diffusion characteristics that generate various
interesting properties for discount bond returns.
We investigate financial markets under model risk caused by uncertain
volatilities. For this purpose we consider a financial market that features
volatility uncertainty. To have a mathematical consistent framework we use the
notion of G-expectation and its corresponding G-Brownian motion recently
introduced by Peng (2007). Our financial market consists of a riskless asset
and a risky stock with price process modeled by a geometric G-Brownian motion.
We adapt the notion of arbitrage to this more complex situation and consider
stock price dynamics which exclude arbitrage opportunities.
The paper introduces options where the holder to select certain strategies
that control the payoff.These control processes are assumed to be adapted to
the current flow of information. These options have potential applications for
commodities and energy trading. For instance, a control process can represent
the quantity of some commodity that can be purchased by a certain given price
at current time. In another example, the control represents the weight of the
integral in a modification of the Asian option.
This paper is devoted to the pricing of Barrier options by optimal quadratic
quantization method. From a known useful representation of the premium of
barrier options one deduces an algorithm similar to one used to estimate
nonlinear filter using quadratic optimal functional quantization. Some
numerical tests are fulfilled in the Black-Scholes model and in a local
volatility model and a comparison to the so called Brownian Bridge method is
also done.
In this paper we present an algorithm for pricing barrier options in
one-dimensional Markov models. The approach rests on the construction of an
approximating continuous-time Markov chain that closely follows the dynamics of
the given Markov model. We illustrate the method by implementing it for a range
of models, including a local Levy process and a local volatility
jump-diffusion. We also provide a convergence proof and error estimates for
this algorithm.
We propose a general class of models for the simultaneous treatment of
equity, corporate bonds, government bonds and derivatives. The noise is
generated by a general affine Markov process. The framework allows for
stochastic volatility, jumps, the possibility of default and correlations
between different assets. We extend the notion of a discounted moment
generation function of the log stock price to the case where the underlying can
default and show how to calculate it in terms of a coupled system of
generalized Riccati equations.
We show that stochastic recovery always leads to counter-intuitive behaviors
in the risk measures of a CDO tranche - namely, continuity on default and
positive credit spread risk cannot be ensured simultaneously. We then propose a
simple recovery variance regularization method to control the magnitude of
negative credit spread risk while preserving the continuity on default.
In this paper, we present a new method for calculating the limit of early
exercise boundary at expiry. We price American style of general derivative
using a formula expressed as a sum of the value of European style of derivative
and so called American premium. We use the latter expression to calculate an
analytic formula for limit of early exercise boundary at expiry. Method applied
on American style plain vanilla, Asian and lookback options yields identical
results with already known values.
We study historical calibration of one- and two-factor models that are known
to describe relatively well the dynamics of energy underlyings such as spot and
index natural gas or oil prices at different physical locations or regional
power prices. We take into account uneven frequency of data due to weekends,
holidays, and possible missing data.
We present a novel approach to the pricing of financial instruments in
emission markets, for example, the EU ETS. The proposed hybrid model is
positioned between existing complex full equilibrium models and pure
risk-neutral models. Using an exogenously specified demand for a polluting good
it gives a causal explanation for the accumulation of CO2 emissions and takes
into account the feedback effect from the cost of carbon to the rate at which
the market emits CO2.
We propose a method for pricing American options whose pay-off depends on the
moving average of the underlying asset price. The method uses a finite
dimensional approximation of the infinite-dimensional dynamics of the moving
average process based on a truncated Laguerre series expansion. The resulting
problem is a finite-dimensional optimal stopping problem, which we propose to
solve with a least squares Monte Carlo approach. We analyze the theoretical
convergence rate of our method and present numerical results in the
Black-Scholes framework.
We analyze the practical consequences of the bilateral counterparty risk
adjustment. We point out that past literature assumes that, at the moment of
the first default, a risk-free closeout amount will be used. We argue that the
legal (ISDA) documentation suggests in many points that a substitution closeout
should be used. This would take into account the risk of default of the
survived party. We show how the bilateral counterparty risk adjustment changes
strongly when a substitution closeout amount is considered.
Path integral techniques for the pricing of financial options are mostly
based on models that can be recast in terms of a Fokker-Planck differential
equation and that, consequently, neglect jumps and only describe drift and
diffusion. We present a method to adapt formulas for both the path-integral
propagators and the option prices themselves, so that jump processes are taken
into account in conjunction with the usual drift and diffusion terms.
For a long time interest-rate models were built on a single yield curve used
both for discounting and forwarding. However, the crisis that has affected
financial markets in the last years led market players to revise this
assumption and accommodate basis-swap spreads, whose remarkable widening can no
longer be neglected. In recent literature we find many proposals of multi-curve
interest-rate models, whose calibration would typically require market quotes
for all yield curves. At present this is not possible since most of the quotes
are missing or extremely illiquid.
In recent years, a market for mortality derivatives began developing as a way
to handle systematic mortality risk, which is inherent in life insurance and
annuity contracts. Systematic mortality risk is due to the uncertain
development of future mortality intensities, or {\it hazard rates}. In this
paper, we develop a theory for pricing pure endowments when hedging with a
mortality forward is allowed. The hazard rate associated with the pure
endowment and the reference hazard rate for the mortality forward are
correlated and are modeled by diffusion processes.
We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic
volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation
techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in
this setting. Three examples of random time-changes are provided and the
implied volatility surfaces induced by these time-changes are examined as a
function of the model parameters.
We model the dynamics of asset prices and associated derivatives by
consideration of the dynamics of the conditional probability density process
for the value of an asset at some specified time in the future. In the case
where the asset is driven by Brownian motion, an associated "master equation"
for the dynamics of the conditional probability density is derived and
expressed in integral form. By a "model" for the conditional density process we
mean a solution to the master equation along with the specification of (a) the
initial density, and (b) the volatility structure of the density.
In this paper we propose a copula contagion mixture model for correlated
default times. The model includes the well known factor, copula, and contagion
models as its special cases. The key advantage of such a model is that we can
study the interaction of different models and their pricing impact.
Specifically, we model the marginal default times to follow some contagion
intensity processes coupled with copula dependence structure.
This paper considers asset price dynamics of which discounted return is
modeled by a multi-dimensional affine diffusion process. By analyzing the
Riccati system, which is associated with the affine process via the transform
formula, we fully characterize the regions of exponents in which asset price
moments do not explode at any time or explode at a given time. These behaviors
are closely tied to the long-term growth rate of asset price moments as well as
implied volatility asymptotics at large-time-to-maturity or at extreme strikes
for any given option maturity.
We provide a general method to compute a Taylor expansion in time of implied
volatility for stochastic volatility models, using a heat kernel expansion.
Beyond the order 0 implied volatility which is already known, we compute the
first order correction exactly at all strikes from the scalar coefficient of
the heat kernel expansion. Furthermore, the first correction in the heat kernel
expansion gives the second order correction for implied volatility, which we
also give exactly at all strikes. As an application, we compute this asymptotic
expansion at order 2 for the SABR model.
In the Black-Scholes context we consider the probability distribution
function (PDF) of financial returns implied by volatility smile and we study
the relation between the decay of its tails and the fitting parameters of the
smile. We show that, considering a scaling law derived from data, it is
possible to get a new fitting procedure of the volatility smile that considers
also the exponential decay of the real PDF of returns observed in the financial
markets.
We consider stochastic volatility models using piecewise constant parameters.
We suggest a hybrid optimization algorithm for fitting the models to a
volatility surface and provide some numerical results. Finally, we provide an
outlook on how to further improve the calibration procedure.
In financial markets, the information that traders have about an asset is
reflected in its price. The arrival of new information then leads to price
changes. The `information-based framework' of Brody, Hughston and Macrina (BHM)
isolates the emergence of information, and examines its role as a driver of
price dynamics. This approach has led to the development of new models that
capture a broad range of price behaviour. This thesis extends the work of BHM
by introducing a wider class of processes for the generation of the market
filtration.
Options that allow the holder to extend the maturity by paying an additional
fixed amount found many applications in finance. Closed-form solution for these
options first appeared in Longstaff (1990) for the case when underlying asset
follows a geometric Brownian motion with the constant interest rate and
volatility. Unfortunately there are several typographical errors in the
published formula for the holder-extendible put. These are subsequently
repeated in textbooks, other papers and software. This short paper presents a
correct formula.
There is vast empirical evidence that given a set of assumptions on the
real-world dynamics of an asset, the European options on this asset are not
efficiently priced in options markets, giving rise to arbitrage opportunities.
We study these opportunities in a generic stochastic volatility model and
exhibit the strategies which maximize the arbitrage profit. In the case when
the misspecified dynamics is a classical Black-Scholes one, we give a new
interpretation of the classical butterfly and risk reversal contracts in terms
of their (near) optimality for arbitrage strategies.
The aim of this study was to develop methods for evaluating the
American-style option prices when the volatility of the underlying asset is
described by a stochastic process. As part of this problem were developed
techniques for modeling the early exercise surface of the American option.
These methods of present work are compared to the complexity of modeling and
computation speed. The paper presents the semi-analytic expression for the
price of American options with stochastic volatility. The results of numerical
computations and their calibration are also presented.
We study the dependence of volatility on the stock price in the stochastic
volatility framework on the example of the Heston model.To be more specific, we
consider the conditional expectation of variance (square of volatility) under
fixed stock price return as a function of the return and time. The behavior of
this function depends on the initial stock price return distribution density.
In particular, we obtain the "smile" effect near the mean value of the stock
price return.
In this paper new analytical and numerical approaches to valuating
path-dependent options of European type have been developed. The model of
stochastic volatility as a basic model has been chosen. For European options we
could improve the path integral method, proposed B. Baaquie, and generalized it
to the case of path-dependent options, where the payoff function depends on the
history of changes in the underlying asset. The dependence of the implied
volatility on the parameters of the stochastic volatility model has been
studied.
We consider a stochastic volatility model with L\'evy jumps for a log-return
process $Z = (Z_t)_{t\ge 0}$ of the form $Z = U+X$, where $U = (U_t)_{t\ge 0}$
is a classical stochastic volatility process and $X = (X_t)_{t\ge 0}$ is an
independent L\'evy process with absolutely continuous L\'evy measure $\nu$.
Small-time expansions, of arbitrary polynomial order in time $t$, are obtained
for the tails $\bbp(Z_t \ge z)$, $z >0$, and for the call-option prices
$\bbe(e^{z+Z_t} - 1)_+$, $z\neq 0$, assuming smoothness conditions on the
L\'evy density away from the origin and a small-time large de
In the information-based approach to asset pricing the market filtration is
modelled explicitly as a superposition of signals concerning relevant market
factors and independent noise. The rate at which the signal is revealed to the
market then determines the overall magnitude of asset volatility. By letting
this information flow rate random, we obtain an elementary stochastic
volatility model within the information-based approach. Such an extension is
economically justified on account of the fact that in real markets information
flow rates are rarely measurable.
This paper examines the valuation of a generalized American-style option
known as a Game-style call option in an infinite time horizon setting. The
specifications of this contract allow the writer to terminate the call option
at any point in time for a fixed penalty amount paid directly to the holder.
Valuation of a perpetual Game-style put option was addressed by Kyprianou
(2004) in a Black-Scholes setting on a non-dividend paying asset.
Bilateral CVA as currently implement has the counterintuitive effect of
profiting from one's own widening CDS spreads, i.e. increased risk of default,
in practice. The unified picture of CVA and liquidity introduced by Morini &
Prampolini 2010 has contributed to understanding this. However, there are two
significant omissions for practical implementation that come from the same
source, i.e. positions not booked in usual position-keeping systems. The first
omission is firm-level positions that change value upon firm default.
In this paper, we study stochastic volatility models in regimes where the
maturity is small but large compared to the mean-reversion time of the
stochastic volatility factor. The problem falls in the class of
averaging/homogenization problems for nonlinear HJB type equations where the
"fast variable" lives in a non-compact space. We develop a general argument
based on viscosity solutions which we apply to the two regimes studied in the
paper.
We study specific nonlinear transformations of the Black-Scholes implied
volatility to show remarkable properties of the volatility surface. Model-free
bounds on the implied volatility skew are given. Pricing formulas for the
European options which are written in terms of the implied volatility are
given. In particular, we prove elegant formulas for the fair strikes of the
variance swap and the gamma swap.
In this paper we analytically study the pricing of the arithmetically
averaged Asian option in the path integral formalism. By a trick about the
Dirac delta function, the measure of the path integral is defined by an
effective action whose potential term is an exponential function, i.e. the
Liouville Hamiltonian, which can be explicitly solved. After working out some
auxiliary integrations involving Bessel and Whittaker functions, we arrive at
the spectral expansion expression of the value of an Asian option.
In this paper we consider a new class of dynamic pricing principles and
recursive utilities. We start with the interpretation of the generator of a
backward stochastic differential equation as an infinitesimal pricing rule or
an instantaneous utility. With this interpretation the generator has an
economic meaning and describes the subjective views of the investor concerning
the expected change in the price or the utility. We give a motivation for
considering non-Markovian generators of BSDEs which leads us to the study of
so-called time-delayed backward stochastic differential equations.
We study the timing of derivative purchases in incomplete markets. In our
model, an investor attempts to maximize the spread between her model price and
the offered market price through optimally timing her purchase. Both the
investor and the market value the options by risk-neutral expectations but
under different equivalent martingale measures representing different market
views. We show that the structure of the resulting optimal stopping problem
depends on the interaction between the respective market price of risk and the
option payoff.
We study the general model of self-financing trading strategies in illiquid
markets introduced by Schoenbucher and Wilmott, 2000. A hedging strategy in the
framework of this model satisfies a nonlinear partial differential equation
(PDE) which contains some function g(alpha). This function is deep connected to
an utility function. We describe the Lie symmetry algebra of this PDE and
provide a complete set of reductions of the PDE to ordinary differential
equations (ODEs). In addition we are able to describe all types of functions
g(alpha) for which the PDE admits an extended Lie group.
In the LIBOR market model, forward interest rates are log-normal under their
respective forward measures. This note shows that their distributions under the
other forward measures of the tenor structure have approximately log-normal
tails.
The asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility associated with a general
call pricing function has been extensively studied in the last decade. The main
topics discussed in this paper are Lee's moment formulas for the implied
volatility, and Piterbarg's conjecture, describing how the implied volatility
behaves in the case where all the moments of the stock price are finite. We
find various conditions guaranteeing the existence of the limit in Lee's moment
formulas.
We propose a multi-scale stochastic volatility model in which a fast
mean-reverting factor of volatility is built on top of the Heston stochastic
volatility model. A singular pertubative expansion is then used to obtain an
approximation for European option prices.
Using spectral decomposition techniques and singular perturbation theory, we
develop a systematic method to approximate the prices of a variety of options
in a fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility setting. Four examples are
provided in order to demonstrate the versatility of our method. These include:
European options, up-and-out options, double-barrier knock-out options, and
options which pay a rebate upon hitting a boundary. For European options, our
method is shown to produce option price approximations which are equivalent to
those developed in [5].
We give an exposition and numerical studies of upper hedging prices in
multinomial models from the viewpoint of linear programming and the
game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk. We also show that, as the number
of rounds goes to infinity, the upper hedging price of a European option
converges to the solution of the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equation.
We study a financial model with a non-trivial price impact effect. In this
model we consider the interaction of a large investor trading in an illiquid
security, and a market maker who is quoting prices for this security. We assume
that the market maker quotes the prices such that by taking the other side of
the investor's demand, the market maker will arrive at maturity with the
maximal expected utility of the terminal wealth.
This cautious note aims to point at the potential risks for the financial
system caused by various increasingly popular volatility derivatives including
variance swaps on futures of equity indices. It investigates the pricing of
variance swaps under the 3/2 volatility model. Carr with Itkin and Sun have
discussed the pricing of variance swaps under this type of model. This paper
studies a special case of this model and observes an explosion of prices for
squared volatility and variance swaps.
This paper considers the modelling of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs).
We propose a top-down model via forward rates generalizing Filipovi\'c,
Overbeck and Schmidt (2009) to the case where the forward rates are driven by a
finite dimensional L\'evy process. The contribution of this work is twofold: we
provide conditions for absence of arbitrage in this generalized framework.
Furthermore, we study the relation to market models by embedding them in the
forward rate framework.
The crisis that affected financial markets in the last years leaded market
practitioners to revise well known basic concepts like the ones of discount
factors and forward rates. A single yield curve is not sufficient any longer to
describe the market of interest rate products. On the other hand, using
different yield curves at the same time requires a reformulation of most of the
basic assumptions made in interest rate models.
We show that in a large class of stochastic volatility models with additional
skew-functions (local-stochastic volatility models) the tails of the cumulative
distribution of the log-returns behave as exp(-c|y|), where c is a positive
constant depending on time and on model parameters. We obtain this estimate
proving a stronger result: using some estimates for the probability that Ito
processes remain around a deterministic curve from Bally et al.