The aim of this work consists in the study of the optimal investment strategy
for a behavioural investor, whose preference towards risk is described by both
a probability distortion and an S-shaped utility function. Within a
continuous-time financial market framework and assuming that asset prices are
modelled by semimartingales, we derive sufficient and necessary conditions for
the well-posedness of the optimisation problem in the case of piecewise-power
probability distortion and utility functions.
We present a goal programming model for risk minimization of a financial
portfolio managed by an agent subject to different possible criteria. We extend
the classical risk minimization model with scalar risk measures to general case
of set-valued risk measure. The problem we obtain is a set-valued optimization
program and we propose a goal programming-based approach to obtain a solution
which represents the best compromise between goals and the achievement levels.
Numerical examples are provided to illustrate how the method works in practical
situations.
Using Random Matrix Theory, we build a covariance matrix between stocks of
the BM&F-Bovespa (Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros de S\~ao Paulo) which
is cleaned of some of the noise due to the complex interactions between the
many stocks and the finiteness of available data, and use a regression model in
order to remove the market effect due to the common movement of all stocks.
These two procedures are then used in order to build portfolios of stocks based
on Markovitz's theory, trying to build better predictions of future risk based
on past data.
We discuss the use of saddlepoint methods in the analysis of portfolios, with
particular reference to credit portfolios. The objective is to proceed from a
model of the loss distribution, given through probabilities, correlations and
the like, to an analytical approximation of the distribution. Once this is done
we show how to derive the so-called risk contributions which are the
derivatives of risk measures, such as a given quantile (VaR) or expected
shortfall, to the allocations in the underlying assets.
This paper studies the problem of continuous time utility maximization of
consumption together with addictive habit formation in general incomplete
semimartingale financial markets. By introducing the auxiliary state processes
and the modified dual space, we embed our original problem into an auxiliary
time separable utility maximization problem with the shadow random endowment.
We establish existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution using convex
duality approach on the product space by defining the primal value function
both on the initial wealth and initial habit.
We consider a model of optimal investment and consumption with both
habit-formation and partial observations in incomplete Ito processes markets.
The individual investor develops addictive consumption habits gradually while
he can only observe the market stock prices but not the instantaneous rates of
return, which follow Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. Applying the Kalman-Bucy
filtering theorem and Dynamic Programming arguments, we solve the associated
HJB equation fully explicitly for this path dependent stochastic control
problem in the case of power utility preferences.
We consider an agent who invests in a stock and a money market account with
the goal of maximizing the utility of his investment at the final time T in the
presence of a proportional transaction cost. The utility function considered is
power utility. We provide a heuristic and a rigorous derivation of the
asymptotic expansion of the value function in powers of transaction cost
parameter. We also obtain a "nearly optimal" strategy, whose utility
asymptotically matches the leading terms in the value function.
To any utility maximization problem under transaction costs one can assign a
frictionless model with a price process $S^*$, lying in the bid/ask price
interlval $[\underline S, \bar{S}]$. Such process $S^*$ is called a
\emph{shadow price} if it provides the same optimal utility value as in the
original model with bid-ask spread.
We suggest an empirical model of investment strategy returns which elucidates
the importance of non-Gaussian features, such as time-varying volatility,
asymmetry and fat tails, in explaining the level of expected returns.
Estimating the model on the (former) Lehman Brothers Hedge Fund Index data, we
demonstrate that the volatility compensation is a significant component of the
expected returns for most strategy styles, suggesting that many of these
strategies should be thought of as being `short vol'.
For utility maximization problems under proportional transaction costs, it
has been observed that the original market with transaction costs can sometimes
be replaced by a frictionless "shadow market" that yields the same optimal
strategy and utility. However, the question of whether or not this indeed holds
in generality has remained elusive so far. In this paper we present a
counterexample which shows that shadow prices may fail to exist.
Flexible algorithm of multicurrency trade on Forex market has been built on
the grounds of non-linear stochastic wavelets (NSW) model. Probability of the
loss-free trade has been evaluated. Results of the algorithm's real-time
testing and issues of the algorithm's development are discussed.
We consider a Black-Scholes market in which a number of stocks and an index
are traded. The simplified Capital Asset Pricing Model is the conjunction of
the usual Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM, and the statement that the
appreciation rate of the index is equal to its squared volatility plus the
interest rate. (The mathematical statement of the conjunction is simpler than
that of the usual CAPM.) Our main result is that either we can outperform the
index or the simplified CAPM holds.
We investigate two methods for reducing estimation error in portfolio
optimization with Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The first method is
nonparametric: penalize portfolios with large variances in mean and CVaR
estimations. The penalized problem is solvable by a quadratically-constrained
quadratic program, and can be interpreted as a chance-constrained program. We
show the original and penalized solutions follow the Central Limit Theorem with
computable covariance by extending M-estimation results from statistics.
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been gaining increasing popularity in the
investment community as is evidenced by the high growth both in the number of
ETFs and their net assets since 2000. As ETFs are in nature similar to index
mutual funds, in this paper we examined if this growing demand for ETFs can be
explained through their outperformance as compared to index mutual funds.
A drawdown constraint forces the current wealth to remain above a given
function of its maximum to date. We consider the portfolio optimisation problem
of maximising the long-term growth rate of the expected utility of wealth
subject to a drawdown constraint, as in the original setup of Grossman and Zhou
(1993). We work in an abstract semimartingale financial market model with a
general class of utility functions and drawdown constraints. We solve the
problem by showing that it is in fact equivalent to an unconstrained problem
but for a modified utility function.
We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily
high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input
parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the
number of assets remains comparable in magnitude to the sample size, we provide
a characterization of the estimation risk by providing deterministic
equivalents of the portfolio out-of-sample performance in terms of the
underlying investment scenario.
The potential of machine learning to automate and control nonlinear, complex
systems is well established. These same techniques have always presented
potential for use in the investment arena, specifically for the managing of
equity portfolios. In this paper, the opportunity for such exploitation is
investigated through analysis of potential simple trading strategies that can
then be meshed together for the machine learning system to switch between. It
is the eligibility of these strategies that is being investigated in this
paper, rather than application.
In this paper we study several classical problems of optimal investment with
intermediate consumption and random endowment in incomplete markets. We
establish the key assertions of the utility maximization theory assuming that
both primal and dual value functions are finite in the interiors of their
domains as well as that random endowment at maturity can be dominated by the
terminal value of a self-financing wealth process. In order to facilitate
verification of these conditions, we present alternative, but equivalent
conditions, under which the conclusions of the theory hold.
In a market with one safe and one risky asset, an investor with a long
horizon, constant investment opportunities, and constant relative risk aversion
trades with small proportional transaction costs. We derive explicit formulas
for the optimal investment policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and
trading volume. At the first order, the liquidity premium equals the spread,
times share turnover, times a universal constant. Results are robust to
consumption and finite horizons.
For an investor with constant absolute risk aversion and a long horizon, who
trades in a market with constant investment opportunities and small
proportional transaction costs, we obtain explicitly the optimal investment
policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and trading volume. We identify
these quantities as the limits of their isoelastic counterparts for high levels
of risk aversion. The results are robust with respect to finite horizons, and
extend to multiple uncorrelated risky assets.
The existence of optimal strategy in robust utility maximization is addressed
when the utility function is finite on the entire real line. A delicate problem
in this case is to find a "good definition" of admissible strategies, so that
an optimizer is obtained.
We study the generalized composite pure and randomized hypothesis testing
problems. In addition to characterizing the corresponding optimal tests, we
examine the conditions under which these two hypothesis testing problems are
equivalent, and provide counterexamples when they are not. This analysis is
useful for portfolio optimization problems that maximize some success
probability given a fixed initial capital. The corresponding dual is related to
a pure hypothesis testing problem which may or may not coincide with the
randomized hypothesis testing problem.
We consider a financial market in which two securities are traded: a stock
and an index. Their prices are assumed to satisfy the Black-Scholes model.
Besides assuming that the index is a tradable security, we also assume that it
is efficient, in the following sense: we do not expect a prespecified
self-financing trading strategy whose wealth is almost surely nonnegative at
all times to outperform the index greatly.
Portfolio managers are often constrained by turnover limits, minimum and
maximum stock positions, cardinality, a target market capitalization and
sometimes the need to hew to a style (growth or value). In addition, many
portfolio managers choose stocks based upon fundamental data, e.g.
price-to-earnings and dividend yield in an effort to maximize return. All of
these are typical real-world constraints a portfolio manager faces.
Robust and reliable covariance estimation plays a decisive role in financial
applications. An important class of estimators is based on Factor models. Here,
we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices derived
from the statistical Factor Analysis model exhibit a systematic error, which is
similar to the well-known systematic error of the spectrum of the sample
covariance matrix. Moreover, we introduce the Directional Variance Adjustment
(DVA) algorithm, which diminishes the systematic error.
We consider the utility maximization problem of terminal wealth from the
point of view of a portfolio manager paid by an incentive scheme given as a
convex function $g$ of the terminal wealth. The manager's own utility function
$U$ is assumed to be smooth and strictly concave, however the resulting utility
function $U \circ g$ fails to be concave. As a consequence, this problem does
not fit into the classical portfolio optimization theory.
Diversification return is an incremental return earned by a rebalanced
portfolio of assets. The diversification return of a rebalanced portfolio is
often incorrectly ascribed to a reduction in variance. We argue that the
underlying source of the diversification return is the rebalancing, which
forces the investor to sell assets that have appreciated in relative value and
buy assets that have declined in relative value, as measured by their weights
in the portfolio.
A geometric analysis of the time series of returns has been performed in the
past and it implied that the most of the systematic information of the market
is contained in a space of small dimension. Here we have explored subspaces of
this space to find out the relative performance of portfolios formed from the
companies that have the largest projections in each one of the subspaces. It
was found that the best performance portfolios are associated to some of the
small eigenvalue subspaces and not to the dominant directions in the distances
matrix.
We consider a power utility maximization problem with additive habits in a
framework of discrete-time markets and random endowments. For certain classes
of incomplete markets, we establish estimates for the optimal consumption
stream in terms of the aggregate state price density, investigate the
asymptotic behaviour of the propensity to consume (ratio of the consumption to
the wealth), as the initial endowment tends to infinity, and show that the
limit is the corresponding quantity in an artificial market.
A wealth-process set is abstractly defined to consist of nonnegative cadlag
processes containing a strictly positive semimartingale and satisfying an
intuitive re-balancing property. Under the condition of absence of arbitrage of
the first kind, it is established that all wealth processes are
semimartingales, and that the closure of the wealth-process set in the Emery
topology contains all "optimal" wealth processes.
We consider several problems of optimal investment with intermediate
consumption in the framework of an incomplete semimartingale model of a
financial market. Our goal is to find minimal conditions on the model and the
utility stochastic field for the validity of several key assertions of the
theory to hold true. We show that a necessary and sufficient condition on both
the utility stochastic field and the model is that the value functions of the
primal and dual problems are finite.
We consider an illiquid financial market with different regimes modeled by a
continuous-time finite-state Markov chain. The investor can trade a stock only
at the discrete arrival times of a Cox process with intensity depending on the
market regime. Moreover, the risky asset price is subject to liquidity shocks,
which change its rate of return and volatility, and induce jumps on its
dynamics. In this setting, we study the problem of an economic agent optimizing
her expected utility from consumption under a non-bankruptcy constraint.
This paper resolves a question proposed in Kardaras and Robertson (2011): how
to invest in a robust growth-optimal way in a market where precise knowledge of
the covariance structure of the underlying process is unavailable. Among an
appropriate class of admissible covariance structures, we characterize the
optimal trading strategy in terms of a generalized version of a principal
half-eigenvalue of a Pucci extremal operator and its associated eigenfunction.
We investigate the continuity of expected exponential utility maximization
with respect to perturbation of the Sharpe ratio of markets. By focusing only
on continuity, we impose weaker regularity conditions than those found in the
literature. Specifically, for markets of the form $S = M + \int \lambda d<M>$,
we require a uniform bound on the norm of $\lambda \cdot M$ in a suitable $bmo$
space.
We provide easily verifiable conditions for the well-posedness of the optimal
investment problem for a behavioral investor in an incomplete discrete-time
multiperiod financial market model, for the first time in the literature. Under
suitable assumptions we also establish the existence of optimal strategies.
We study natural selection in complete financial markets, populated by
heterogeneous agents. We allow for a rich structure of heterogeneity:
Individuals may differ in their beliefs concerning the economy, information and
learning mechanism, risk aversion, impatience (time preference rate) and degree
of habits. We develop new techniques for studying long run behavior of such
economies, based on the Strassen's functional law of iterated logarithm. In
particular, we explicitly determine an agent's survival index and show how the
latter depends on the agent's characteristics.
We study a multi-period Arrow-Debreu equilibrium in a heterogeneous economy
populated by agents trading in a complete market. Each agent is represented by
an exponential utility function, where additionally no negative level of
consumption is permitted. We derive an explicit formula for the optimal
consumption policies involving a put option depending on the state price
density. We exploit this formula to prove the existence of an equilibrium and
then provide a characterization of all possible equilibria, under the
assumption of positive endowments.
We provide a detailed characterization of the optimal consumption stream for
the additive habit-forming utility maximization problem, in a framework of
general discrete-time incomplete markets and random endowments. This
characterization allows us to derive the monotonicity and concavity of the
optimal consumption as a function of wealth, for several important classes of
incomplete markets and preferences. These results yield a deeper understanding
of the fine structure of the optimal consumption and provide a further
theoretical support for the classical conjectures of Keynes (1936).
This paper studies the problem of optimal investment with CRRA (constant,
relative risk aversion) preferences, subject to dynamic risk constraints on
trading strategies. The market model considered is continuous in time and
incomplete; furthermore, financial assets are modeled by It\^{o} processes. The
dynamic risk constraints (time, state dependent) are generated by risk
measures.
Several portfolio selection models take into account practical limitations on
the number of assets to include and on their weights in the portfolio. We
present here a study of the Limited Asset Markowitz (LAM), of the Limited Asset
Mean Absolute Deviation (LAMAD) and of the Limited Asset Conditional
Value-at-Risk (LACVaR) models, where the assets are limited with the
introduction of quantity and cardinality constraints. We propose a completely
new approach for solving the LAM model, based on reformulation as a Standard
Quadratic Program and on some recent theoretical results.
Historical returns depend on historical closing prices and distributions. We
describe how to compute adjusted closing prices from closing price/distribution
data with an emphasis on spreadsheet implementation. Then the growth of a
security from one date to another (1 + total return) is just the ratio of the
corresponding adjusted closing prices.
The paper studies problem of continuous time optimal portfolio selection for
a diffusion model of incomplete market. It is shown that, under some mild
conditions, the suboptimal strategies for investors with different performance
criterions can be constructed using a limited number of fixed processes (mutual
funds), for a market with a larger number of available risky stocks. In other
words, a relaxed version of Mutual Fund Theorem is obtained.
This paper considers an optimal life insurance for a householder subject to
mortality risk. The household receives a wage income continuously, which is
terminated by unexpected (premature) loss of earning power or (planned and
intended) retirement, whichever happens first. In order to hedge the risk of
losing income stream by householder's unpredictable event, the household enters
a life insurance contract by paying a premium to an insurance company. The
household may also invest their wealth into a financial market.
We consider a portfolio optimization problem in a defaultable market with
finitely-many economical regimes, where the investor can dynamically allocate
her wealth among a defaultable bond, a stock, and a money market account. The
market coefficients are assumed to depend on the market regime in place, which
is modeled by a finite state continuous time Markov process. We rigorously
deduce the dynamics of the defaultable bond price process in terms of a Markov
modulated stochastic differential equation.
The vector of periodic, compound returns of a typical investment portfolio is
almost never a convex combination of the return vectors of the securities in
the portfolio. As a result the ex post version of Harry Markowitz's "standard
mean-variance portfolio selection model" does not apply to compound return
data. We propose using notional portfolios and normalized linear returns to
remedy this problem.
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are the only truly liquid assets
related to real estate investments. We study the behavior of U.S. REITs over
the past three decades and document their return characteristics. REITs have
somewhat less market risk than equity; their betas against a broad market index
average about .65. Decomposing their covariances into principal components
reveals several strong factors. REIT characteristics differ to some extent from
those of the S&P/Case-Shiller (SCS) residential real estate indexes. This is
partly attributable to methods of index construction.
This paper investigates the risk-return relationship in determination of
housing asset pricing. In so doing, the paper evaluates behavioral hypotheses
advanced by Case and Shiller (1988, 2002, 2009) in studies of boom and
post-boom housing markets. The paper specifies and tests a multi-factor housing
asset pricing model.
Consider power utility maximization of terminal wealth in a 1-dimensional
continuous-time exponential Levy model with finite time horizon. We discretize
the model by restricting portfolio adjustments to an equidistant discrete time
grid. Under minimal assumptions we prove convergence of the optimal
discrete-time strategies to the continuous-time counterpart. In addition, we
provide and compare qualitative properties of the discrete-time and
continuous-time optimizers.
Limited liability creates a conflict of interests between policyholders and
shareholders of insurance companies. It provides shareholders with incentives
to increase the risk of the insurer's assets and liabilities which, in turn,
might reduce the value policyholders attach to and premiums they are willing to
pay for insurance coverage. We characterize Pareto optimal investment and
premium policies in this context and provide necessary and sufficient
conditions for their existence and uniqueness.
We study the problem of super-replication for game options under proportional
transaction costs. We consider a multidimensional model which is an extension
of the usual Black-Scholes (BS) model, in the sense that the volatility is a
progressively measurable function of the stock. For this case we show that the
super-replication price is the cheapest cost of a trivial super-replication
strategy. This result is an extension of previous papers (see [1], [2], [10]
and [11]) in which only European options with Markovian structure were
considered.
We show how to reduce the problem of computing VaR and CVaR with Student T
return distributions to evaluation of analytical functions of the moments. This
allows an analysis of the risk properties of systems to be carefully attributed
between choices of risk function (e.g. VaR vs CVaR); choice of return
distribution (power law tail vs Gaussian) and choice of event frequency, for
risk assessment. We exploit this to provide a simple method for portfolio
optimization when the asset returns follow a standard multivariate T
distribution.
In this article we extend earlier work on the jump-diffusion risk-sensitive
asset management problem [SIAM J. Fin. Math. (2011) 22-54] by allowing jumps in
both the factor process and the asset prices, as well as stochastic volatility
and investment constraints. In this case, the HJB equation is a partial
integro-differential equation (PIDE). By combining viscosity solutions with a
change of notation, a policy improvement argument and classical results on
parabolic PDEs we prove that the HJB PIDE admits a unique smooth solution.
In the market place, diversification reduces risk and provides protection
against extreme events by ensuring that one is not overly exposed to individual
occurrences. We argue that diversification is best measured by characteristics
of the combined portfolio of assets and introduce a measure based on the
information entropy of the probability distribution for the final portfolio
asset value. For Gaussian assets the measure is a logarithmic function of the
variance and combining independent Gaussian assets of equal variance adds an
amount to the diversification.
We introduce an extension to Merton's famous continuous time model of optimal
consumption and investment, in the spirit of previous works by Pliska and Ye,
to allow for a wage earner to have a random lifetime and to use a portion of
the income to purchase life insurance in order to provide for his estate, while
investing his savings in a financial market comprised of one risk-free security
and an arbitrary number of risky securities driven by multi-dimensional
Brownian motion.
We consider an optimal consumption - investment problem for financial markets
of Black-Scholes's type with the random coefficients. The existence and
uniqueness theorem for the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation is shown. We
construct an iterative sequence of functions converging to the solution of this
equation. An optimal convergence rate for this sequence is found and sharp
computable upper bounds for the approximation accuracy of the optimal
consumption - investment strategies are obtained. It turns out that the optimal
convergence rate in this case is super geometrical, i.e.
We consider a utility-maximization problem in a general semimartingale
financial market, subject to constraints on the number of shares held in each
risky asset. These constraints are modeled by predictable convex-set-valued
processes whose values do not necessarily contain the origin, i.e., no risky
investment at all may be inadmissible. Such a setup subsumes the classical
constrained utility-maximization problem, as well as the problem where illiquid
assets or a random endowment are present.
We pursue an inverse approach to utility theory and consumption & investment
problems. Instead of specifying an agent's utility function and deriving her
actions, we assume we observe her actions (i.e. her consumption and investment
strategies) and ask if it is possible to derive a utility function for which
the observed behaviour is optimal. We work in continuous time both in a
deterministic and stochastic setting. In a deterministic setup, we find that
there are infinitely many utility functions generating a given consumption
pattern.
Portfolio turnpikes state that, as the investment horizon increases, optimal
portfolios for generic utilities converge to those of isoelastic utilities.
This paper proves three kinds of turnpikes. The abstract turnpike, valid in a
general semimartingale setting, states that final payoffs and portfolios
converge under their myopic probabilities.
We propose a unified methodology to input non-linear views from any number of
users in fully general non-normal markets, and perform, among others,
stress-testing, scenario analysis, and ranking allocation. We walk the reader
through the theory and we detail an extremely efficient algorithm to easily
implement this methodology under fully general assumptions. As it turns out, no
repricing is ever necessary, hence the methodology can be readily applied to
books with complex derivatives.
This paper is devoted to study the effects arising from imposing a
value-at-risk (VaR) constraint in mean-variance portfolio selection problem for
an investor who receives a stochastic cash flow which he/she must then invest
in a continuous-time financial market.
We consider in this paper the optimal dividend problem for an insurance
company whose uncontrolled reserve process evolves as a classical
Cram\'{e}r--Lundberg process. The firm has the option of investing part of the
surplus in a Black--Scholes financial market. The objective is to find a
strategy consisting of both investment and dividend payment policies which
maximizes the cumulative expected discounted dividend pay-outs until the time
of bankruptcy.
In this paper we extend the stability results of [4]}. Our utility
maximization problem is defined as an essential supremum of conditional
expectations of the terminal values of wealth processes, conditioned on the
filtration at the stopping time $\tau$. The stability result, in particular,
implies that in the framework of [4], the optimal wealth at any given stopping
time is stable with respect to changes in the Sharpe ratio and initial wealth.
To establish our results, we extend the classical results of convex analysis to
maps from $L^0$ to $L^0$.
We consider the maximization of the long-term growth rate in the
Black-Scholes model under proportional transaction costs as in Taksar, Klass
and Assaf [Math. Oper. Res. 13, 1988]. Similarly as in Kallsen and Muhle-Karbe
[Ann. Appl. Probab., 20, 2010] for optimal consumption over an infinite
horizon, we tackle this problem by determining a shadow price, which is the
solution of the dual problem. It can be calculated explicitly up to determining
the root of a deterministic function.
A stock loan is a contract whereby a stockholder uses shares as collateral to
borrow money from a bank or financial institution. In Xia and Zhou (2007), this
contract is modeled as a perpetual American option with a time varying strike
and analyzed in detail within a risk--neutral framework. In this paper, we
extend the valuation of such loans to an incomplete market setting, which takes
into account the natural trading restrictions faced by the client.
In a continuous-path semimartingale market model, we perform an initial
enlargement of the filtration by including the overall minimum of the numeraire
portfolio. We establish that all discounted asset-price processes, when stopped
at the time of the overall minimum of the numeraire portfolio, become local
martingales under the enlarged filtration. This implies that risk-averse
insider traders would refrain from investing in the risky assets before that
time.
We revisit the problem of maximizing expected logarithmic utility from
consumption over an infinite horizon in the Black-Scholes model with
proportional transaction costs, as studied in the seminal paper of Davis and
Norman [Math. Operation Research, 15, 1990]. Similarly to Kallsen and
Muhle-Karbe [Ann. Appl. Probab., 20, 2010], we tackle this problem by
determining a shadow price, that is, a frictionless price process with values
in the bid-ask spread which leads to the same optimization problem. However, we
use a different parametrization, which facilitates computation and
verification.
We study an optimal consumption and investment problem in a possibly
incomplete market with general, not necessarily convex, stochastic constraints.
We give explicit solutions for investors with exponential, logarithmic and
power utility. Our approach is based on martingale methods which rely on recent
results on the existence and uniqueness of solutions to BSDEs with drivers of
quadratic growth.
The growth-optimal portfolio optimization strategy pioneered by Kelly is
based on constant portfolio rebalancing which makes it sensitive to transaction
fees. We examine the effect of fees on an example of a risky asset with a
binary return distribution and show that the fees may give rise to an optimal
period of portfolio rebalancing. The optimal period is found analytically in
the case of lognormal returns. This result is consequently generalized and
numerically studied for broad return distributions and returns generated by a
GARCH process.
We develop the idea of using Monte Carlo sampling of random portfolios to
solve portfolio investment problems. In this first paper we explore the need
for more general optimization tools, and consider the means by which
constrained random portfolios may be generated. A practical scheme for the
long-only fully-invested problem is developed and tested for the classic QP
application.
The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems
with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis
was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti and M. M\'ezard [Eur. Phys. B. 57,
175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation
method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set.
This paper studies the utility maximization problem with changing time
horizons in the incomplete Brownian setting. We first show that the primal
value function and the optimal terminal wealth are continuous with respect to
the time horizon $T$. Secondly, we exemplify that the expected utility stemming
from applying the $T$-horizon optimizer on a shorter time horizon $S$, $S < T$,
may not converge as $S\uparrow T$ to the $T$-horizon value. Finally, we provide
necessary and sufficient conditions preventing the existence of this
phenomenon.
In this short report, we discuss how coordinate-wise descent algorithms can
be used to solve minimum variance portfolio (MVP) problems in which the
portfolio weights are constrained by $l_{q}$ norms, where $1\leq q \leq 2$. A
portfolio which weights are regularised by such norms is called a sparse
portfolio (Brodie et al.), since these constraints facilitate sparsity (zero
components) of the weight vector. We first consider a case when the portfolio
weights are regularised by a weighted $l_{1}$ and squared $l_{2}$ norm.
This paper addresses the question of how to invest in an extremely robust
growth-optimal way in a market where the instantaneous expected return of the
underlying process is unknown. The optimal investment strategy is identified
using a generalized version of the principle eigenfunction for an elliptic
second-order differential operator which depends on the covariance structure of
the underlying process used for investing.
A competing market model with a polyvariant profit function that assumes
"zeitnot" stock behavior of clients is formulated within the banking portfolio
medium and then analyzed from the perspective of devising optimal strategies.
An associated Markov process method for finding an optimal choice strategy for
monovariant and bivariant profit functions is developed.
We present an online approach to portfolio selection. The motivation is
within the context of algorithmic trading, which demands fast and recursive
updates of portfolio allocations, as new data arrives. In particular, we look
at two online algorithms: Robust-Exponentially Weighted Least Squares (R-EWRLS)
and a regularized Online minimum Variance algorithm (O-VAR). Our methods use
simple ideas from signal processing and statistics, which are sometimes
overlooked in the empirical financial literature.
In this paper an econophysics model for the currency exchange operations with
commission is proposed. With this purpose some analogies and similarities of
the processes that take place in the frame of the electrochemical system made
from electrodes sunk into a solution of electrolytes and the process of the
currency exchange and determination of the international currency purchasing
power have been used.
We consider the problem of portfolio optimization in the presence of market
impact, and derive optimal liquidation strategies. We discuss in detail the
problem of finding the optimal portfolio under Expected Shortfall (ES) in the
case of linear market impact. We show that, once market impact is taken into
account, a regularized version of the usual optimization problem naturally
emerges. We characterize the typical behavior of the optimal liquidation
strategies, in the limit of large portfolio sizes, and show how the market
impact removes the instability of ES in this context.
In this paper we consider dividend problem for an insurance company whose
risk evolves as a spectrally negative L\'{e}vy process (in the absence of
dividend payments) when Parisian delay is applied. The objective function is
given by the cumulative discounted dividends received until the moment of ruin
when so-called barrier strategy is applied. Additionally we will consider two
possibilities of delay. In the first scenario ruin happens when the surplus
process stays below zero longer than fixed amount of time $\zeta>0$.
We study the effect of liquidity freezes on an economic agent optimizing her
utility of consumption in a perturbed Black-Scholes-Merton model. The single
risky asset follows a geometric Brownian motion but is subject to liquidity
shocks, during which no trading is possible and stock dynamics are modified.
The liquidity regime is governed by a two-state Markov chain. We derive the
asymptotic effect of such freezes on optimal consumption and investment
schedules in the two cases of (i) small probability of liquidity shock; (ii)
fast-scale liquidity regime switching.
We present an approach to derivative exposure management based on subjective
and implied probabilities. We suggest to maximize the valuation difference
subject to risk constraints and propose a class of risk measures derived from
the subjective distribution. We illustrate this process with specific examples
for the two and three dimensional case. In these cases the optimization can be
performed graphically.
A financial market model with general semimartingale asset-price processes
and where agents can only trade using no-short-sales strategies is considered.
We show that wealth processes using continuous trading can be approximated very
closely by wealth processes using simple combinations of buy-and-hold trading.
This approximation is based on controlling the proportions of wealth invested
in the assets.
We assume that an individual invests in a financial market with one riskless
and one risky asset, with the latter's price following a diffusion with
stochastic volatility. In the current financial market especially, it is
important to include stochastic volatility in the risky asset's price process.
Given the rate of consumption, we find the optimal investment strategy for the
individual who wishes to minimize the probability of going bankrupt. To solve
this minimization problem, we use techniques from stochastic optimal control.
This work takes up the challenges of utility maximization problem when the
market is indivisible and the transaction costs are included. First there is a
so-called solvency region given by the minimum margin requirement in the
problem formulation. Then the associated utility maximization is formulated as
an optimal switching problem. The diffusion turns out to be degenerate and the
boundary of domain is an unbounded set.
This paper considers a portfolio optimization problem in which asset prices
are represented by SDEs driven by Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure,
with drifts that are functions of an auxiliary diffusion 'factor' process.
In this paper, we extend the jump-diffusion model proposed by Davis and Lleo
to include jumps in asset prices as well as valuation factors. The criterion,
following earlier work by Bielecki, Pliska, Nagai and others, is risk-sensitive
optimization (equivalent to maximizing the expected growth rate subject to a
constraint on variance.) In this setting, the Hamilton- Jacobi-Bellman equation
is a partial integro-differential PDE. The main result of the paper is to show
that the value function of the control problem is the unique viscosity solution
of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation.
We consider the optimal investment problem for Black-Scholes type financial
market with bounded VaR measure on the whole investment interval $[0,T]$. The
explicit form for the optimal strategies is found.
We investigate optimal consumption and investment problems for a
Black-Scholes market under uniform restrictions on Value-at-Risk and Expected
Shortfall. We formulate various utility maximization problems, which can be
solved explicitly. We compare the optimal solutions in form of optimal value,
optimal control and optimal wealth to analogous problems under additional
uniform risk bounds. Our proofs are partly based on solutions to
Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, and we prove a corresponding verification
theorem.
We investigate optimal consumption problems for a Black-Scholes market under
uniform restrictions on Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for logarithmic
utility functions. We find the solutions in terms of a dynamic strategy in
explicit form, which can be compared and interpreted. This paper continues our
previous work, where we solved similar problems for power utility functions.
The aim of this paper is to compare two asset allocation methods for a
pension scheme during the decumulation phase in the simplified portfolio
selection between a risky asset following a geometric Brownian motion and a
riskless asset. The two asset allocation criteria are the ruin probability of
the insurance company and the optimization of the economic capital. We first
solve the asset allocation problem with deterministic pension payments then
with stochastic mortality risk. We analyze the part of mortality risk in the
global risk of the company.
In this article we extend earlier work on the jump-diffusion risk-sensitive
asset management problem by allowing for jumps in both the factor process and
the asset prices as well as stochastic volatility and investment constraints.
In this case, the HJB equation is a PIDE. By combining viscosity solutions with
a change of notation, a policy improvement argument and classical results on
parabolic PDEs we prove that the PIDE admits a unique smooth solution. A
verification theorem concludes the resolutions of this problem.
The comparative statics of the optimal portfolios across individuals is
carried out for a continuous-time complete market model, where the risky assets
price process follows a joint geometric Brownian motion with time-dependent and
deterministic coefficients. It turns out that the indirect utility functions
inherit the order of risk aversion (in the Arrow-Pratt sense) from the von
Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions, and therefore, a more risk-averse agent
would invest less wealth (in absolute value) in the risky assets.
Kramkov and Sirbu (2006, 2007) have shown that first-order approximations of
power utility-based prices and hedging strategies can be computed by solving a
mean-variance hedging problem under a specific equivalent martingale measure
and relative to a suitable numeraire. In order to avoid the introduction of an
additional state variable necessitated by the change of numeraire, we propose
an alternative representation in terms of the original numeraire.
We study multiple defaults where the global market information is modelled as
progressive enlargement of filtrations. We shall provide a general pricing
formula by establishing a relationship between the enlarged filtration and the
reference default-free filtration in the random measure framework. On each
default scenario, the formula can be interpreted as a Radon-Nikodym derivative
of random measures.
We study power utility maximization for exponential L\'evy models with
portfolio constraints, where utility is obtained from consumption and/or
terminal wealth. For convex constraints, an explicit solution in terms of the
L\'evy triplet is constructed under minimal assumptions by solving the Bellman
equation. We use a novel transformation of the model to avoid technical
conditions. The consequences for q-optimal martingale measures are discussed as
well as extensions to non-convex constraints.
We study utility maximization for power utility random fields with and
without intermediate consumption in a general semimartingale model with closed
portfolio constraints. We show that any optimal strategy leads to a solution of
the corresponding Bellman equation. The optimal strategies are described
pointwise in terms of the opportunity process, which is characterized as the
minimal solution of the Bellman equation. We also give verification theorems
for this equation.
We study the utility maximization problem for power utility random fields in
a semimartingale financial market, with and without intermediate consumption.
The notion of an opportunity process is introduced as a reduced form of the
value process of the resulting stochastic control problem. We show how the
opportunity process describes the key objects: optimal consumption, value
function, and dual problem. The results are applied to obtain monotonicity
properties of the optimal consumption.
A shadow price is a process lying within the bid/ask prices of a market with
proportional transaction costs, such that maximizing expected utility from
consumption in the frictionless market with this price process leads to the
same maximal utility as in the original market with transaction costs. For
finite probability spaces, this note provides an elementary proof for the
existence of such a shadow price.
In this paper we derive the optimal execution trajectory for a trader who
wishes to buy or sell a large position of shares which evolve as a geometric
Brownian process in contrast to the arithmetic model which prevails in the
existing literature, and with a general temporary impact $h$. We provide a
couple of examples which illustrate the results. We would like to stress the
fact that in this paper we use understandable user-friendly techniques.
We consider the problem of maximizing expected utility from terminal wealth
in models with stochastic factors. Using martingale methods and a conditioning
argument, we determine the optimal strategy for power utility under the
assumption that the increments of the asset price are independent conditionally
on the factor process.
We study the optimal investment problem for a continuous time incomplete
market model such that the risk-free rate, the appreciation rates and the
volatility of the stocks are all random; they are assumed to be independent
from the driving Brownian motion, and they are supposed to be currently
observable.
An optimal investment problem is solved for an insider who has access to
noisy information related to a future stock price, but who does not know the
stock price drift. The drift is filtered from a combination of price
observations and the privileged information, fusing a partial information
scenario with enlargement of filtration techniques. We apply a variant of the
Kalman-Bucy filter to infer a signal, given a combination of an observation
process and some additional information.
The paper studies the robust maximization of utility of terminal wealth in
the diffusion financial market model. The underlying model consists with risky
tradable asset, whose price is described by diffusion process with misspecified
trend and volatility coefficients, and non-tradable asset with a known
parameter. The robust utility functional is defined in terms of a HARA utility
function. We give explicit characterization of the solution of the problem by
means of a solution of the HJBI equation.
We reveal an interesting convex duality relationship between two problems:
(a) minimizing the probability of lifetime ruin when the rate of consumption is
stochastic and when the individual can invest in a Black-Scholes financial
market; (b) a controller-and-stopper problem, in which the controller controls
the drift and volatility of a process in order to maximize a running reward
based on that process, the stopper chooses the time to stop the running reward
and rewards the controller a final amount at that time.
The optimization of large portfolios displays an inherent instability to
estimation error. This poses a fundamental problem, because solutions that are
not stable under sample fluctuations may look optimal for a given sample, but
are, in effect, very far from optimal with respect to the average risk. In this
paper, we approach the problem from the point of view of statistical learning
theory. The occurrence of the instability is intimately related to over-fitting
which can be avoided using known regularization methods.
The main purpose of this paper is to analyze solutions to a fully nonlinear
parabolic equation arising from the problem of optimal portfolio construction.
We show how the problem of optimal stock to bond proportion in the management
of pension fund portfolio can be formulated in terms of the solution to the
Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. We analyze the solution from qualitative as
well as quantitative point of view. We construct useful bounds of solution
yielding estimates for the optimal value of the stock to bond proportion in the
portfolio.
The aim of this work is to extend the capital growth theory developed by
Kelly, Breiman, Cover and others to asset market models with transaction costs.
We define a natural generalization of the notion of a numeraire portfolio
proposed by Long and show how such portfolios can be used for constructing
growth-optimal investment strategies. The analysis is based on the classical
von Neumann-Gale model of economic dynamics, a stochastic version of which we
use as a framework for the modelling of financial markets with frictions.
The aim of this work is to extend the capital growth theory developed by
Kelly, Breiman, Cover and others to asset market models with transaction costs.
We define a natural generalization of the notion of a numeraire portfolio
proposed by Long and show how such portfolios can be used for constructing
growth-optimal investment strategies. The analysis is based on the classical
von Neumann-Gale model of economic dynamics, a stochastic version of which we
use as a framework for the modelling of financial markets with frictions.
We consider the problem of dynamic buying and selling of shares from a
collection of $N$ stocks with random price fluctuations. To limit investment
risk, we place an upper bound on the total number of shares kept at any time.
Assuming that prices evolve according to an ergodic process with a mild
decaying memory property, and assuming constraints on the total number of
shares that can be bought and sold at any time, we develop a trading policy
that comes arbitrarily close to achieving the profit of an ideal policy that
has perfect knowledge of future events.
Classical mean-variance portfolio theory tells us how to construct a
portfolio of assets which has the greatest expected return for a given level of
return volatility. Utility theory then allows an investor to choose the point
along this efficient frontier which optimally balances her desire for excess
expected return against her reluctance to bear risk. The means and covariances
of the distributions of future asset returns are assumed to be known, so the
only source of uncertainty is the stochastic piece of the price evolution.