Large and moderate deviation probabilities play an important role in many
applied areas, such as insurance and risk analysis. This paper studies the
exact moderate and large deviation asymptotics in non-logarithmic form for
linear processes with independent innovations. The linear processes we analyze
are general and therefore they include the long memory case.
We obtain a sharp convergence rate for banded covariance matrix estimates of
stationary processes. A precise order of magnitude is derived for spectral
radius of sample covariance matrices. We also consider thresholded covariance
matrix estimator that can better characterize sparsity if the true covariance
matrix is sparse. As our main tool, we implement Toeplitz (1911)'s idea and
relate eigenvalues of covariance matrices to the spectral densities or Fourier
transforms of the covariances.
The paper presents a systematic theory for asymptotic inference of
autocovariances of stationary processes. We consider nonparametric tests for
serial correlations based on the maximum (or ${\cal L}^\infty$) and the
quadratic (or ${\cal L}^2$) deviations. For these two cases, with proper
centering and rescaling, the asymptotic distributions of the deviations are
Gumbel and Gaussian, respectively. To establish such an asymptotic theory, as
byproducts, we develop a normal comparison principle and propose a sufficient
condition for summability of joint cumulants of stationary processes.
We consider kernel estimation of marginal densities and regression functions
of stationary processes. It is shown that for a wide class of time series, with
proper centering and scaling, the maximum deviations of kernel density and
regression estimates are asymptotically Gumbel. Our results substantially
generalize earlier ones which were obtained under independence or beta mixing
assumptions.
This paper considers the inference of regression functions in the context of
multiple time series. For an arbitrary number of time series observed at a
large number of time points, we test the hypothesis that the regression curves
are parallel to each other. A central limit theorem is obtained for a
parallelism index based on the distances between the estimates of the
regression curves and their average. To implement the testing procedure, we
propose a simulation-based approach that significantly improves upon the normal
approximation to the test statistic.
This paper considers the efficient estimation of copula-based semiparametric
strictly stationary Markov models. These models are characterized by
nonparametric invariant (one-dimensional marginal) distributions and parametric
bivariate copula functions where the copulas capture temporal dependence and
tail dependence of the processes. The Markov processes generated via tail
dependent copulas may look highly persistent and are useful for financial and
economic applications.
We consider asymptotic behavior of Fourier transforms of stationary ergodic
sequences with finite second moments. We establish the central limit theorem
(CLT) for almost all frequencies and also the annealed CLT. The theorems hold
for all regular sequences. Our results shed new light on the foundation of
spectral analysis and on the asymptotic distribution of periodogram, and it
provides a nice blend of harmonic analysis, theory of stationary processes and
theory of martingales.
For statistical inference of means of stationary processes, one needs to
estimate their time-average variance constants (TAVC) or long-run variances.
For a stationary process, its TAVC is the sum of all its covariances and it is
a multiple of the spectral density at zero. The classical TAVC estimate which
is based on batched means does not allow recursive updates and the required
memory complexity is O(n). We propose a faster algorithm which recursively
computes the TAVC, thus having memory complexity of order O(1) and the
computational complexity scales linearly in $n$.
We consider estimation of quantile curves for a general class of
nonstationary processes. Consistency and central limit results are obtained for
local linear quantile estimates under a mild short-range dependence condition.
Our results are applied to environmental data sets. In particular, our results
can be used to address the problem of whether climate variability has changed,
an important problem raised by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
in 2001.