Evaluating Financial Model Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Some North Sea Investments.

link: http://arxiv.org/abs/1008.3725
Abstract

Fifty North Sea oil & gas investment transactions were analysed using
traditional spreadsheet based financial modelling methods. The purpose of the
analysis was to determine if there was a statistically significant relationship
between the price paid for an oil & gas asset and the actual or expected
financial return over the asset's economically useful life. Several interesting
and statistically significant relationships were found which reveal useful
information about financial modelling performance, the premia paid to acquire
North Sea assets, the contribution oil and gas price uncertainty has on
estimates of future financial returns and the median financial return of these
North Sea Investments.